Rangers' alarming Celtic record and what Clement must change

Philippe Clement’s men are three points behind and four goals worse off than Brendan Rodgers’ men with three fixtures remaining. Anything other than a win, therefore, will spell the end of a 56th league title bid. So can Clement and Rangers break the trend seen in recent seasons by not only winning at Parkhead but winning in this fixture?

From xG performance to the first goal, the midfield battle and tactical questions - here’s what the Belgian's side must do to leave the East End of Glasgow with all three points tomorrow.

The importance of the first goal

Discluding a 3-0 victory at the end of last season with the league title already decided, Rangers have not scored first and won an Old Firm game in nearly three years. Not since Fil Helander’s headed goal in September 2022 have the Ibrox side won after notching the opener, but that too has proven to be a rarity. Again, discluding the 3-0 win at the end of last season, Rangers haven’t scored first in an Old Firm game since Aaron Ramsay’s opener in a 2-1 defeat played in April 2022 under Giovanni van Bronckhorst.

That record will make alarming reading for Rangers supporters anticipating tomorrow’s game. In the 11 intervening meetings between that defeat managed by Van Bronckhorst and the recent 3-3 draw at Ibrox under Clement, only once have Rangers scored first, in a 3-0 win with the title already decided last season. That aside they’ve routinely been forced to play catch-up in these meetings. Their last ‘big win’ against Celtic was just over two years ago in a 2-1 Scottish Cup Semi-Final win. 

While Rodgers’ side are not at the level of Postecoglou’s Celtic the nucleus of a squad used to winning in this fixture, much like the one formed under Gerrard in 2020 and 2021, turns up for this game and knows how to win it. Themes seen all too often under the Australian have continued into meetings this season. Daizen Maeda’s goal off the back of aggressive pressing to kick off the last Old Firm also gave Celtic a foothold during the 2-2 draw early in Michael Beale’s tenure. Kyogo has scored two winning goals in 2023/24 and Celtic have benefitted from glaring misses made by Sam Lammers last September and Cyriel Dessers in December. What is also true, however, is that the league leaders are not without weaknesses. This season has clearly demonstrated points of failure and you only have to cast your mind back to a recent 3-3 draw with Aberdeen as proof. To win and expose frailties Rangers must mitigate their own, however, and scoring first would achieve that.

Matching the xG and making big moments

In 2023 Celtic won five of seven Old Firm games, while only recording a higher xG in one of those games. That statistic does not definitively prove anything. xG is only a measure, not a guarantee and in a number of those games, the Parkhead side have had a lead to protect which limited attacking output. It’s also true to suggest that Rangers have underperformed while Celtic have overperformed on the basis of their moments in front of goal.

We’re discluding the 3-0 reverse last May again because, simply put, nothing was riding on the game. While there can be lessons from the tactical battles that played out, the pressures were quite simply different. In the seven other games from the 2-2 draw in January 2023 to April 2024 Celtic have scored 14 goals from an xG of 7.74. Rangers, meanwhile, have scored nine goals from 9.52xG. Celtic have overperformed their chances at almost double the rate of expectation while Rangers have only matched theirs.

Additional reading...

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It’s important to stress this stat does not prove anything. Celtic could feasibly have scored three or four in the first half at Ibrox last month, dominated last season’s League Cup Final and in general, have capitalised on periods of ascendency. It does, however, outline Celtic’s confident shooting and cool heads in big moments to push the margins in their favour. And mentality matters for so much in this fixture. Dessers’ lackadaisical one-on-one moment at Parkhead, in sharp comparison to Kyogo’s finish from range at the same end in last year’s New Year fixture, defined an overall trend witnessed since the start of the 2021/22 season.

Finding players who thrive in the fixture

Celtic have benefitted from players enjoying the Old Firm occasion while Rangers have felt the gap of big players to step up on the big occasion. Kyogo scored seven goals across the 2023 fixture alone while Rangers’ top scorer was James Tavernier with three goals. Cameron Carter-Vickers has been the league’s best defender since arriving a couple of years ago while the midfield area has normally been controlled by the league leaders.

The 2-1 defeat Rangers suffered at the turn of the year epitomised this fact. Clement’s men fashioned the better scoring opportunities, especially given the space available in transition, but were let down badly by individual decision-making. In contrast, Paulo Bernardo and Kyogo scored from lower-value chances to establish a two-goal lead.

Dujon Sterling, wherever he plays, is a constant standout and performed well in both of the recent fixtures. His role may well come on the right wing to offer a driving force with Abdallah Sima injured in the recent Scottish Cup Semi-Final. Ridvan Yilmaz’s welcome return, alongside the new midfield presence of Mohamed Diomande, provides two more players Rangers fans will be confident can perform individually. Tavernier will have to perform far better defensively up against Maeda than he did at Ibrox last month but has a strike of quality in his locker in this fixture. Questions remain over John Lundstram’s effectiveness alongside others who have played through a number of recent defeats. Todd Cantwell will be under huge pressure to perform if selected at No.10. Very simply, Clement needs players to take hold of the big moments. Because for all the doom and gloom heading into this game based on recent records, a win would change everything.

Winning, or at least matching, in midfield

One area Celtic have so clearly enjoyed the superiority in recent seasons is the midfield with Callum McGregor, Matt O’Riley and Reo Hatate normally having the beating of any of Rangers’ various combinations. Hatate has routinely thrived in this fixture while O’Riley and McGregor’s consistency has been the bedrock of Celtic’s domestic success these past two-and-a-half seasons. Rangers, in contrast, haven’t formed a solid midfield trio since the title win in 2021. The most likely combination of Cantwell, Lundstram and Diomande will need to put in their best showing yet, reminiscent of the 2-0 win over Hearts at Hampden, to match Celtic’s engine room.

When they’ve failed to break the Celtic press in recent seasons, notably in the first half of last month’s 3-3 draw, the control of the match has been surrendered. It’s an area Nico Raskin thrives in, taking the ball under pressure and carrying over range, but the Belgian is too far out of the picture to play. The onus will be on Diomande to offer a passage through the press and for composed heads to sustain the pressure applied by Celtic’s energetic front three.

The New Year game at Parkhead did show that if Clement’s men can play over the first line of pressure, big spaces will present themselves. If the tendency to go long too often becomes Rangers’ rhythm they’ll surrender control.