Lawrence Shankland to Rangers was never a move far down the line in January.
For many supporters on the outside, the 28-year-old was a striker who would prove the difference between Rangers bringing the league title back to Ibrox and coming second. The decision internally was not viewed in quite such black-and-white terms for several reasons.
Of course, decision-makers inside Ibrox are not alien to outside noise and sometimes in football a transfer feels like common sense. Shankland, a forward who hit 31 goals last season, knows the Scottish league and should score even more goals in a better team, would appear a natural fit for a side in need of a domestic goalscorer.
READ MORE: Check all the Rangers transfer news & rumours before the transfer window
There were a few sticking points that prevented any deal in January, however, even though Shankland’s name was discussed internally during the window.
Firstly, the Scotland forward was worth more to Hearts than the fee it’s thought it would take to prise him away from Tynecastle this summer. Finishing third in the Scottish Premiership earned Hearts somewhere north of £4million in qualifying for Europe and was only made possible by Shankland’s goals. Rangers had already sanctioned a loan deal for Fabio Silva in late December who was brought in to compete with Cyriel Dessers. Silva would spend much of his career in Glasgow on the left of midfield due to injuries sustained by Oscar Cortes and Abdallah Sima.
The money committed in January to the signing of Mohamed Diomande was paid this summer, while Cortes initially arrived on loan before a loan-to-buy deal was struck between Rangers and Lens this summer.
Secondly, as Philippe Clement reiterated last week during Rangers’ pre-season camp in the Netherlands, only looking to the short-term has cost the club in recent transfer windows, saying: "If I only looked at the short term, I would only bring in experienced players who can do the job directly.
“Mistakes like that have been made too much in the past and in the end, you don’t reach your goals. You need a different philosophy and that’s what we are all working towards.”
Rangers’ squad building has catalysed numerous issues over the past couple of seasons, with the club unable to shift big wages and constantly trying to recalibrate the make-up of their cohort to suit a certain manager’s style of play. In January they had four first-team forwards under contract in the form of Sam Lammers (then 26), Daninlo (then 24), Cyriel Dessers (29) and Kemar Roofe (31). While the Champions League money guaranteed with a title win would balance out short-term spend, January was viewed as the time to reset Rangers’ recruitment policy and bring down the average age of their squad. The six outfield players signed since director of recruitment Nils Koppen arrived in Glasgow boast an average age of 20 years and six months.
Dessers will be allowed to leave the club this summer for the right price alongside Lammers, while Roofe departed Ibrox in June. Meanwhile, three of the signings already made this summer have been direct, younger replacements for those who left out of contract. Jefte (20) will assume the role of Borna Barisic (31) to challenge Ridvan Yilmaz at left-back, Connor Barron (21) replaces Ryan Jack (32) and John Lundstram (30) in midfield and Hamza Igamane (21) Roofe up top.
The current make-up of the Rangers squad, and front line in particular, is in better shape now to accommodate a 28-year-old forward. If and when, an appropriate offer were to see Dessers leave the club. The Nigerian forward, who managed 22 goals last season, is attracting interest from clubs in Saudi Arabia as well as the French and Spanish leagues.
Sources at Ibrox also suggested that one issue some senior figures raised regarding signing Shankland was whether the striker proves a natural fit for Clement’s desire to play with a pressing forward off the ball. Although Dessers lacks natural pace he averaged the second-highest possession-adjusted pressures per 90 (24.6) of any striker in the league last season.
At time of writing, Hearts have received no bids for Shankland this summer. The forward who travelled to Germany with Steve Clarke’s Scotland squad last month was offered a new deal at Tynecastle running until 2027 earlier this year but a deadline passed with no agreement.
Now in the final year of his current contract, Shankland would cost less, come into a better-structured squad and offer a different profile to Danilo and Igamane if Rangers were to approach the player this summer. But is the deal as obvious as it seems?
The question is, would Shankland present the silver-bullet transfer many claim, a deal that makes sense, no upgrade on Dessers or somewhere in between those extremes? Let’s take a look at how Shankland compares to Dessers using their respective StatsBomb radars which consider key underlying metrics. As a reminder, the closer to the boundary line the better.
What is this telling me?
If you were a recruitment analyst only working on the basis of data, a glance at this graph would give you a clear indicator of one player outperforming the other. Shankland notched 21 league goals in 39.8 league 90s (0.53 non-penalty goals per 90) while Dessers amassed 16 league goals in 27.3 league 90s (0.59 non-penalty goals per 90). But judging players based on numbers alone rarely tells a full story.
Shankland overperformed his chances considerably and amassed those goals from fewer opportunities despite playing more minutes in the Scottish Premiership last season. He managed 21 goals when the chances afforded should’ve amounted to around 12, while Dessers scored 16 goals when the numbers suggest he ought to have found the net atleast once more.
It’s important to note, and this is where the eye test comes in, that xG does not include shots which weren’t taken. For example, when Dessers infamously bore down on goal away at Celtic Park in the New Year Old Firm and failed to take a shot, no xG was recorded.
xG overperformance can often be circular - i.e. a player overperforms the chances one year before underperforming the year after. For example, in the 2022/23 season, Shankland scored 13 open play goals from 13xG, a lower tally than his 2023/24 xG despite scoring eight more goals.
This could be explained by a purple patch and last season was the best of the forward’s career. However, there are some examples of players who can constantly overperform in relation to the rest of the league, or perform above a previous average during their peak years.
A good way of encapsulating Dessers’ superior numbers to Shankland is this - how would those numbers compare if the duo swapped places last season?
Admittedly, much of the rhetoric surrounding Dessers continues to focus too much on only his bad moments and not the definitive goals scored last season. A double against Shankland and Hearts at Hampden to reach the Scottish Cup Final, a late winner away at St Mirren to keep title ambitions alive, that individual goal away at Real Betis or several effective performances at Ibrox against Ross County, Hearts and Dundee. If, as planned, he’d played fewer minutes and shared the position with one of Silva/Abdallah Sima or Danilo, Rangers’ hand would have been strengthed.
What Shankland boasts in comparison is superior link-up play and an ability to bring his team up the pitch. There’s also a feeling he’s able to score big goals in big moments and plays as a more natural goalscorer. The data suggests based on last year's form that more chances would equate to a higher goal tally. Equally, the former Aberdeen, Ayr and Dundee United striker hasn’t spent his career at the level of Dessers though, an important consideration. What's more, Shankland's pressing numbers playing for a team that spends more time out of possession than Rangers are not as strong as the club’s current No.9. And that is a vital factor for the type of football Clement wants to produce.
The underlying numbers show there is nuance to the Shankland and Dessers debate. Shankland would not represent a fix-all signing if Rangers were to acquire his services this summer. The question is would his profile, alongside others, provide the component parts required for a successful title tilt?
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