What can Rangers expect from Aberdeen? A 'soft underbelly' undermining encouraging numbers

The game will be an emotional occasion, given the passing of Rangers icon Walter Smith yesterday.

The visitor's start to the season has underwhelmed – only last week their chairman Dave Cormack took to the radio to defend Glass' start to the season.

Early promise gave way to disappointment prior to their 1-0 win over Hibs on Saturday - the side sits eighth with 11 points from 10 matches.

Glass did of course take over at the tail end of 20/21 – then facing Steven Gerrard’s men on the day they lifted the Scottish Premiership title. A 4-0 scoreline in favour of the hosts far overshone the quality of chances their opponents were unable to execute.

That along with the hope of a modernised footballing product appeased large aspects of the fanbase in the summer. Recruitment looked rosy with the singing of Motherwell captain Declan Gallacher, Celtic captain Scott Brown and Christian Ramirez amongst others.

Review of the underlying numbers shows that structural issues appear to be undermining the optimism that was firmly in place this August.

The season so far

The underlying numbers offer two perspectives on Aberdeen's fortunes.

An optimist would argue the foundations for greater success are being established and mistakes will gradually be eradicated.

A pessimist would perhaps counter that with a more cynical take. That regardless of encouragement, a failure to do the basics will always underpin a team's success.

The xG difference table, which calculates the xG per/90 minus xG conceded, puts them comfortably in the top six - third at 0.14. On a chance creation to concession basis they are underperforming.

A number of other metrics show the team's results may not mirror performances. 

In terms of the number of shots, chances from set-plays and concession of dangerous areas to the opposition - no numbers hold up the red flag.

READ MORE: How Rangers’ double-pivot 'dismarking' allowed champions to turn the tide against St Mirren

Its comparison of Aberdeen's output across the league that offers some explanation. Analysis of the quality of shot they're allowing compared to the league average provokes mild concern.

Although not conceding multitudes of chances and being outplayed - a soft underbelly has made wins hard to come by.

This goal they conceded against St Mirren offers a perfect example. Joe Lewis surrenders possession in the worst possible scenario - with full-back's high and the team set to try and build play.

The ball goes straight to Allan Power who feeds Ethan Erhahon. Notice how high left-back Jack Mackenzie is - the defence is completely out of shape to deal with the attack.

Erhahon feeds Connor Ronan, tucked in the space between the centre-backs to turn and score. Notice how easy it is for the hosts to create a high-value shooting opportunity, all stemming from a singular misplaced pass and lack of Aberdeen recovery.

This game embodied why the outlined statistics don't necessarily translate into points. Aberdeen conceded two more avoidable goals from their opponents xG of 0.95 in a 3-2 loss. Basic errors undermining the good work done at the other end.

The shape that led to St Miren's equaliser later in the match is poor - it leaves ample space for Ronan to steal between the lines and score. 

In a 2-1 recent defeat to Dundee, there was just a 15-second difference between Ryan Hedges having a pass intercepted by Lee Ashcroft on the edge of the box and Leigh Griffiths firing home.

After the pass is intercepted and Paul McMullan receives possession in the middle - a simple ball over the top leads to the goal. Despite the fact that Funso Ojo initially intercepts the ball from Ashcroft.

Interestingly, the one metric in which Aberdeen stand out disfavourably is defensive action regains. The number of times a team wins the ball back within 5 seconds of a defensive action from one of their players.

A failure to push forward or fall back following Ojo's aggressive action leads to the concession of a goal.

Aberdeen have seven players in McMullan's vicinity - they're all passive as he assists Griffiths. 

Fundamentally it appears these mistakes and soft goals have hindered the team - with their attack not good enough to compensate for the level of defensive vulnerability.

The offensive radar in comparison with the league average signals one standout metric - set-pieces. Aberdeen of course employ specialist coach Allan Russell to work on these scenarios.

Ramirez's goal in Paisley offers a good example of the chance creation from an indirect free-kick.

Both he and Brown are standing at the back post in this free-kick set-up.

St Mirren's man-for-man approach allows Ramirez to isolate his strength one-one-one. Brown acts as a shield, making no intent to attack the ball, but instead blocking off Ramirez's marker Marcus Fraser.

READ MORE: How Joe Aribo's 'immeasurable' Rangers impact has created three set-piece goals this season - analysis

As Ramirez moves in front of Brown deliberately, Fraser must do the same.

This too sums up the type of side Glass' Aberdeen are. Don't mistake their fragility to a lack of intention - the attention to set-pieces is an example of the management staff trying to steal every advantage they can.

"As soon as it is happening in games, players know when they have missed chances, players know when they have not defended well enough," Glass said after a 2-0 defeat to Motherwell last month.

"They know we believe in them, they know we believe we have a good group of players that is going to do something this year and that is what we focus on."

The occasion will be emotional for players, staff and supporters alike. 

Steven Gerrard said in his touching tribute to Smith: "When you play Aberdeen it's though anyway because they're a good team. 

"And obviously, the news of today is gonna make it even more tough. But we need to be united, the fans, the players and everyone at the club.

"Do our best in the circumstances - the biggest tribute we can do is remember him and honour him by trying to put in a performance and getting three points for him and his family."