Scott Arfield's Ibrox crossroads: Should Rangers offer him a new contract?

The 33-year-old, who was Steven Gerrard’s first signing as manager when he arrived in the summer of 2018, is effectively playing for an extension and could even find himself departing Govan this month if reports linking Turkish duo Alanyaspor and Hatayspor with a move for the midfielder are to be believed.

A lot has happened since Arfield first pitched up in Glasgow. Then, Rangers weren’t even serious title challengers; now they are Premiership champions. Then, the starting line-up was dysfunctional; now they are a force to be reckoned with. And of course, back then Gerrard occupied the home dugout at Ibrox.

Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s time at the helm had largely been plain sailing up until Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Aberdeen, where Rangers dropped points in the league for the first time on the Dutchman’s watch. It represented the first adversity that van Bronckhorst has really faced since returning to the club as manager, with Rangers looking sluggish and uninspiring at Pittodrie. And, perhaps, it showed why Arfield still has a place at Ibrox beyond this season.

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In a match where Rangers’ midfield was conspicuously flat, van Bronckhorst found himself turning to John Lundstram in the second half as he looked to shore things up in the middle. It didn’t quite pan out that way, though, as Stephen Glass’ side continued to overrun the midfield. Aberdeen’s subsequent equaliser had more than a touch of inevitability about it.

The summer signing from Sheffield United is many things but dynamic isn’t one of them, and this was a match crying out for someone forward-thinking with a bit of mobility. Naturally, the game plan changed when Ryan Kent was dismissed 10 minutes after Lundstram was brought on but that wasn’t the case at the time of the substitution.

The days of Arfield holding down a regular starting spot at Rangers are likely to be over but the midfielder, who earlier this week announced his retirement from international duty with Canada, remains a useful squad player whose versatility makes him very handy. Equally adept at playing in central midfield or at No.10, Arfield is perhaps one of the biggest beneficiaries of the change in shape instigated by van Bronckhorst.

The usual caveats about small sample sizes must be applied but from the data we have on van Bronckhorst’s reign so far, there is plenty to suggest that Arfield has been playing his way into a new deal at Ibrox. We are seeing improvements across different aspects of his game since the former Barcelona player replaced Gerrard as manager, which could justify a one-year extension – particularly with the long-term futures of several midfielders up in the air.

The radar above shows Arfield’s performances relative to other central and attacking midfielders in the top flight in the year up until Van Bronckhorst’s first match as Rangers manager. The one below shows how the 33-year-old has been getting on since.

There are a few things that jump out. Firstly, Arfield’s creative output has improved significantly over the last two months. His expected goals (xG) has remained roughly where it was, which still leaves Arfield as one of the top-performing players in his position in the league in this metric, but he is also fashioning better opportunities for his team-mates.

Arfield’s open play xG Assisted (the quality and quantity of chances he creates) has risen, while his xG Build-up (his overall contribution to the team’s creative output) has also increased, despite the fact he was already out-performing most of his Premiership peers in this regard, and he is also completing significantly more key passes. It’s exactly the sort of creative spark that was lacking at Pittodrie.

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There is also room for cautious optimism when looking at how Arfield has fared off the ball whenever he has featured in the new midfield system. Arfield’s pressures have improved, his pressured regains have shot up and his tackles and interceptions per game have slightly increased, too.

There have been a couple of downturns as well, of course. Arfield’s deep completions (successful passes and dribbles in the final third) have decreased although he still remains amongst the best players in our sample, and the former Falkirk and Burnley midfielder has been guilty of committing more turnovers since van Bronckhorst took charge. That aside, most of the key metrics for a player in his role are either remaining static or trending upwards.

That alone might not have been enough to justify an extension but given the uncertainty facing Rangers’ midfield, perhaps a little continuity wouldn’t go amiss. Joe Aribo and Glen Kamara are attracting interest with their performances and it’s plausible that one or both could be sold this summer. Steven Davis is in a similar position to Arfield with his contract set to expire but after turning 37 earlier this month, a reduction in game time feels inevitable in the event a deal can be struck. Lundstram is more defensively-minded and cannot match Arfield’s creative output, while Juninho Bacuna is still to truly make any sort of impression six months into his Rangers career. It remains to be seen just how important a figure January arrival James Sands will be.

The imminent return of Ryan Jack to the first-team fold adds a degree of certainty to how the midfield is likely to shape up next season but after that, all bets are off. Van Bronckhorst could find himself short of options in the middle of the park should a couple of players move on and while the 46-year-old will surely have designs on stamping his authority on the Rangers squad in the guise of his own signings, Arfield could prove a handy stop-gap during the transition. He has been a consistent performer during his stint at the club, both domestically and in Europe, and looks to be a better fit in van Bronckhorst’s preferred system than he was in Gerrard’s.

Much will come down to the man himself, of course. Arfield’s international retirement could be viewed as an intention to focus on his club career and playing regularly. Age is not on his side but he has shown he has the energy and ability to seek first-team football elsewhere. That is his prerogative, and if he decides to depart for a greater guarantee of minutes then he should leave with the best wishes of the Rangers support. So far, he has shown he has to be at least considered for an extension at Ibrox. If he keeps up his impressive start to life under van Bronckhorst and decides he wants to stick around, it will become one of the easiest decisions the Rangers manager has to make.