Why Rangers' victories have been more worrying than recent draws - Jonny McFarlane

While the notion will have the fitba Da community fulminating with rage, it’s a sound concept that carries across most industries. 

Results can fluctuate due to uncontrollable factors, say refereeing or the awkward bounce of a ball, but if you continually do the right things, success will inevitably come. 

That’s why, for this writer at least, there was little in the way of panic around Rangers’ dropped points against Dundee United and Motherwell. 

With approaching 60 shots on goal in two games and three goals lost due to individual errors, the failures were not in the coaching or structure of the team.  

Against United in particular, data shows the Ibrox club would have won 91 times out of 100, a level of numerical surety rarely seen at this level. 

However, the same outlook is also why there should be concern despite picking up six points from six against St Johnstone and Aberdeen. 

Let's start with the positives. In both games, Giovanni van Bronckhorst will have been rightfully delighted to “protect the zero”. 

The defensive structure was solid across 180 minutes, with a combined xG conceded, the quality of chances opponent's created, of just 0.25. Neither opponent laid a glove, Rangers defended threats well and looked rock solid. 

Going forward though, the picture is far less rosy. 

The team has created only 2.88xG across the two matches, less than the United game in isolation. 

You can see from the above pass maps how Rangers are set out on the pitch, however, the colours surrounding each player are of greater interest. Their threat is measured as a journey from cool blue to firey red. It’s obvious to see in this data what the eye is also telling us - there isn't enough threat from attacking players. 

Regardless of whether Rangers are creating chances or not, the team simply does not have enough players capable of racking up big goal and assist numbers at the domestic level. 

Steven Gerrard won 55 on the back of realising his team needed decisive contributions from more than a small band of performers in Alfredo Morelos, James Tavernier, Jermain Defoe and Scott Arfield. 

READ MORE: Rangers scouting: The Moroccan Bosman 'transfer masterstroke' ready-made for SPFL

In adding Ianis Hagi (permanently) and Kemar Roofe to the team in the summer he was rewarded with 34 Premiership goal contributions (goals and assists). 

In March, that same duo have nine. Of course, this has much to do with Hagi’s injury, but the numbers have to be made up from somewhere. 

Alfredo Morelos looks transformed under van Bronckhorst but he’s only scored 12 times in the league this year and in all honesty, there's an argument he’s never scored enough goals in domestic competition to be a successful Rangers number nine. 

His league record for the previous four seasons tells a story.  

17/18 Season: 14 goals 

18/19 Season: 17 goals 

19/20 Season: 12 goals 

20/21 Season: 11 goals 

These numbers reflect what many observers will tell you - Morelos has never been, and unlikely ever will be, a deadly finisher. He can snatch at shots and has a propensity towards lashing the ball rather than placing it. His movement into dangerous areas is solid but not intrinsic like it was for the truly predatory like Ally McCoist or Nikica Jelavic. 

None of this is to say Morelos isn’t of huge value to the team, he is, and especially so in Europe. But when your central striker isn’t the kind to grab 25 in the league every season, you need players around him who can hit the net to make up the shortfall. 

Ryan Kent, the one player in the entire league with the skillset to easily perform at the highest level has just two goals. Scott Arfield has four. Joe Aribo has seven. Roofe and Sakala have seven. 

If the team is to be built around the Colombian striker, it’s just not enough. 

This fact must be core to van Bronckhorst’s, sure to be extensive, summer rebuild. 

It’s all about the numbers, and at the moment they just don’t add up. 

It’s a simple equation, but one that will likely cost a title if it’s not solved fast.