WHEN the UK was placed into lockdown in March 2020, Rangers were not prospering.
Following a 3-1 defeat against Bayern Leverkusen, a game that featured notable on-pitch disparity between Rangers and the European elite, a Scottish Cup exit and 1-0 home defeat inflicted by Brian Rice’s Hamilton, the mood was low.
The highs of a 2-1 Old Firm win in December, that appeared a defining moment, had been forgotten and the momentum built by Steven Gerrard and his staff was left somewhat punctured.
Aside from the mental shortcomings that false dawn of 2019/20 revealed, the team lacked certain tools required to win the league title. This played out during that harrowing Hamilton encounter when a glut of chances were created and ;left unconverted.
Gerrard needed numbers from his forward areas that he simply was not getting.
Alfredo Morelos, who’d shown the best form of his Rangers career prior to the 2020 winter break, took 36 shots in the Scottish Premiership between late January and early March, a total of 656 minutes, and amassed an xG of 3.0 without finding the net.
Jermain Defoe scored a couple, but he only played regularly in place of Morelos and not alongside him. Scott Arfield scored three times, Ryan Kent twice, Ianis Hagi once, Joe Aribo once, Florian Kamberi once and George Edmundson once, but no one could net consistently.
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The team underperformed their expected goals (xG) by nearly five strikes between the home tie with St Mirren on January 22 2020 and encounter with Ross County on March 8 2020, a 10-game spell.
During the post-winter break period, their xG per 90 stood at 1.59 and goals per 90 1.10, overall the team underperformed based on the chances they created by 0.39 per 90.
Before the winter break their xG per 90 was 1.92 and goals per 90 2.79, overall they overperformed based on the chances they created by 0.87 per 90.
Rangers required a finisher who could line up alongside Morelos and score goals from one of the No.10 positions. They also required a player to help prise open the opposition defence and add numbers. Step forward Ianis Hagi and Kemar Roofe.
Recent memory of Roofe’s injury-hit 2021/22 and Hagi’s poor numerical season should not overshine the impact they made as Rangers won a 55th league title.
Roofe scored 14 non-penalty goals from open play. Often playing from the right-sided forward position, he could be fielded with Morelos, fitting into Gerrard’s system out of possession and acting as a second No.9 when in the penalty box.
Hagi added seven goals himself, including winners in stuffy 1-0 victories against Hibs and St Johnstone in the previously fatal winter stretch of games, while also providing 10 assists.
Admittedly, both have struggled to cement a position under Giovanni van Bronckhorst. However, when looking at 2020/21 in isolation, their scoring contribution (goals and assists) is bettered only by Ryan Kent, with 34 non-penalty goals and assists between them.
In comparison, Rangers’ 2021/22 scoring contribution chart underlines the campaign’s struggles. Only two players recorded more than 14 goals and assists compared to five the season before.
In 2020/21 Rangers significantly overperformed their underlying numbers in both boxes, scoring 2.42 goals per 90 from 1.74 xG per 90.
In 2021/22 Rangers levelled out on their underlying numbers in both boxes, scoring 2.11 goals per 90 from 1.89 xG per 90.
Without the reliability of Roofe and Hagi alongside Kent and Morelos, goals decreased. Given Allan McGregor’s drop in form, he wasn’t able to dictate results over the course of a season as he had done previously.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that this summer’s transfer business will resemble a refresh rather than rebuild, with McGregor, Steven Davis and Scott Arfield all extending their stay at Ibrox for another year.
Therefore, the mission for Wilson appears similar to that of two years ago. With the outfield spine of the squad settled, the Sporting Director must make intelligent acquisitions where the squad requires an impact.
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Goals and assists are required from any right-sided attacker, while greater striker competition must be brought in to add goals alongside Morelos. It appears quality will be favoured over quantity until any sales emerge which is of course largely dependent on contracts.
2021/22 ended on a positive given the Europa League run and Scottish Cup win, but supporters still need convinced that this team can reclaim a title.
While not working from the depths of 2019/20’s implosion, there are big decisions to get right before the window closes.
As he did in the summer of 2020, Wilson must right the wrongs of the previous campaign for this window to be regarded as a success.
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