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In a start to the league season dominated by disappointment, Antonio Colak bucked the trend.
The Croatian scored 11 in 14 league starts, averaging 0.9 goals per 90 minutes. Following 10 in his first nine, only one goal arrived in the subsequent five matches. Having overperformed his xG dramatically to reach double-digits (10 goals from 4.38xG) his output dried up as the team’s performances trended in the wrong direction (one goal from 2.53xG).
Given Colak was scoring at double the rate of expectation, upholding such a standard was unlikely. Even if he’s consistently shown a tendency to maximise low shooting opportunities, demonstrating a finishing ability that only Jermain Defoe has rivalled at Ibrox in recent seasons.
One of the few definable attacking trends in the early parts of this campaign was the forward’s proclivity to score across his body from the right side of the box. His league goal map from the season, inserted below, shows that nine strikes have originated from that side of the penalty area.
Although Colak has overperformed the chances created to this point, it’s unlikely Michael Beale’s Rangers create less than Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s version domestically. In theory, you’d expect a player who adapted to the club so quickly to thrive in better circumstances.
So why the slight apprehension surrounding Colak’s suitability to the new manager?
Under Van Bronckhorst the attacker played 14.82 passes per 90, less than half of the 31.97 averaged by Alfredo Morelos in the previous season. Why does this matter? It’s an indicator that Morelos is much more likely to get involved in open play, drop into pockets and create overloads.
Beale wants his team to build play methodically but intentionally. That doesn’t mean his team will play ‘slower’, far from it. The new manager’s attack will work in closer proximity, get numbers around the ball and build-up through the thirds. Van Bronckhorst’s football was far more direct, aiming to progress play by inviting the opposition to press, big switches and one-on-ones.
Especially away from home, that approach was too comfortable for domestic opponents.
Morelos transitioned into a deep-lying forward under Steven Gerrard to unsettle opposition defences. In dropping deep he becomes a problem. If defenders go with him, it leaves a gap in the defence that can be exploited by a midfield runner. If they don’t, the forward can act as a free man to outnumber the opposition in midfield and help progress the ball forwards.
Can Colak fulfil that function? Will it be suited to a penalty box striker not known for his hold-up play?
Beale, speaking at his unveiling press conference, was quick to highlight he’s not returning to Ibrox in order to simply reinstate the methods of Gerrard’s era.
Not only is he now in charge with some “new ideas and more variety”, but the playing squad is also “slightly different to the one last time I was here [and] it’s got to be about this group now”.
Whether it be playing Malik Tillman in a role more suited to the American's quality or freeing up Ryan Kent, Beale’s emphasised the need to mix tactics with relationships. Getting the best out of the individual to get the best out of the team. Rather than shoehorning them into roles that don’t suit their resources.
Colak is not incapable of impacting the game outside the box. For example in a 4-1 win against Aberdeen and a 4-0 win away at Hearts this season, the striker was tasked with pulling a defender into the midfield and taking up greater responsibility during the build-up. His 0.05xA (expected assist) tally per 90 shows creating for others is not a strong point, however.
Playing closer to his teammates could afford greater opportunities for combinations and leave him less isolated against defenders. Beale's also open to using two strikers, as was the case towards the end of Gerrard's era.
Although Colak doesn't possess Morelos' link-up ability it's about this group now, the qualities Beale has to hand. The 29-year-old Croatian's goal guarantee is an outlet he'll be keen to harness.
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