GIOVANNI van Bronckhorst will have little margin for error in his first two months as manager of Rangers.
Having arrived a week on from Steven Gerrard’s departure, trips to Tynecastle, Easter Road, Hampden and Celtic Park all come before the next break in the season.
Fortunately, things were looking up from a performance aspect prior to the latest round of international fixtures. Van Bronckhorst will seek to form this team into his own image - but he inherits a successful tactical blueprint that will benefit from a new figurehead.
An area that will require his immediate attention can be found at the top end of the pitch – in the form of Alfredo Morelos. He scored his 100th goal for the club just weeks ago, yet has been a source of frustration this term.
Supporters want to see some elements return to his arsenal – with the knowledge that he is fully capable of hitting the heights of 2019/20.
Underlying numbers don’t reveal a dramatic drop-off, but performances and goal return are not at the level Morelos is capable of. So how can the new regime get the best out of him?
Throughout the last three seasons, Morelos has evolved from an individualistic player - identifiable for rolling defenders and battling his way through games - to more of a deep-lying forward. Now he's rarely seen up on the last line of the opposing defence and often found in front of it.
READ MORE: Alfredo Morelos faces Rangers career precipice - Jonny McFarlane
As detailed in The Rangers Review’s in-depth analysis of the Morelos evolution this summer, his progressive runs and touches in the opposition box fell while his interceptions and passes received grew from 18/19 to 20/21. It was an evolution that coincided with the team improving – such was Morelos’ contribution to the build-up phase.
As the previous management staff learned how to unsettle and unlock opposing defences domestically, Morelos’ proficiency outside of the penalty box became increasingly important.
By dropping off of the defensive line, the Colombian was able to either drag a defender into midfield and open gaps in the backline or overload the midfield to help progress the ball.
“[I’m] trying to bounce it off somebody to create a bit of space and disrupt their backline,” Steven Davis told Sky Sports last season, explaining the role of Morelos.
“Morelos has come off [referencing Kemar Roofe’s opener last season in a 4-0 win over Ross County], the player’s came with him [and] that’s left the gap in behind.”
In another win against Ross County earlier in the season, this type of link-up play was particularly effective in creating space. Morelos made 46 passes on that day.
Here, acting as the target while Glen Kamara moves forward, he drops into midfield unmarked to offer an avenue through the pitch.
Morelos is not in the cover shadow of No.22 (Tillson) because no centre-backs have followed him. This allows the Colombian to quickly play a one-two with Steven Davis, before switching play out to the right.
This move encapsulates the benefits of a deep-lying forward. Exploiting a side’s compact and overloaded shape to move play into opportune areas.
A 2-1 home win over Hibs also featured the whole package from the 25-year-old. On that day he made 47 passes, creating space against a packed defence. Like in Dingwall – it was capped off with an important goal.
But those ‘complete’ games have been inconsistent. Too often the forward has lacked a final burst into the box or suffered from a lack of runners in behind joining him in the front line.
The job of Van Bronckhorst will be to help mould a player who had the world at his feet two years ago into that full package consistently.
A review of how the Dutchman has used his forwards in the past suggests that what he requires of his centre-forward may lend itself to the task.
His 4-3-3 at Feyenoord, although varying dependent on personnel, differs from the product on show at Ibrox since 2018. It remains to be seen how Rangers’ new manager will evolve and adapt the current set-up. It was a move away from wide players that aided Gerrard in 2019 so favourably.
The option of playing a more traditional front three is likely to be introduced, however. Analysis of how ex-Feyenoord striker Nicolai Jorgensen was utilised in particular suggests the centre-forward will be an out-ball closer to the opposition goal.
Over four seasons in Holland, Van Bronckhorst predominantly used three forwards: Robin Van Persie, Jorgensen and Michiel Kramer. The profile of all three is an indicator within itself. The latter two are 6’4 and 6’5 respectively and while Van Persie was smaller in stature, he was more of a focal point and link player towards the end of his career. Clearly, the new manager preferred to flank a physical presence with two wide players capable of adding speed into attacks.
Furthermore, two deep midfielders could play behind more of an out and out No.10. Full-backs could also play more of a support role, all of which could allow Morelos to spend more time higher up the pitch.
The comparison below, all data used from league competition, provides insight into how the centre-forward role at Feyenoord differed from that which Morelos has played the past two seasons.
Rangers also had a 64.37% average possession share in the sample size used for Morelos. Across Van Bronckhorst’s four years in the Netherlands, his team enjoyed an average possession share of 57.23%.
Given the calibre of player Van Persie was, his link-up play is a step above the other three. Even so, there is not a huge disparity in the role played in the final third between all four players. Morelos is receiving a much higher number of passes and making a greater number of touches in the opposing penalty area. Again, on the caveat of playing for the division’s best team.
These numbers alongside further analysis of the trends he has recorded throughout this season indicate that perhaps with slightly better balance alongside him, a simplified role and playing closer once more to the opposition goal – Morelos can recover form soon.
Although simplistic it’s the same suggestion Antonio Conte made of another deep-lying forward, Harry Kane, as a pundit in the summer before working with him.
“Many praise Harry Kane for his ability to go get the ball and play with the team, such as with the equaliser (for England) against Denmark,” he said.
“But it’s in the box where he’s clinical and as a coach, I would always keep him in there because he’s devastating.”
A look at Morelos’ radar from this season compared to the 19/20 shows, despite drop-offs in some attacking metrics, his underlying numbers haven't dipped significantly.
The forward is making less dribbles and slightly more passes. His xG and touches in the opposition box have dropped but interestingly, he was as involved in both the xGChain and xGBuildup in 19/20 as this season.
A slightly reduced xG/shot, down 0.05 from last season, is perhaps the difference between the chances passed up in certain fixtures this season.
Complaints about off-ball work have surfaced as reason for his lack of goals. The 25-year-old is making around three less PAdj pressures per match this season, his current average of 13.23 compared to last year's 16.08. The current average of 13.23 is his lowest in the past four seasons.
But what does this all mean? Conclusively, and encouragingly, it appears Morelos is falling on the wrong side of small margins. Whether that be the quality of shot taken, the pressure put on the ball or touches in the opposing box.
And while the return of his trademark performances remains appealing, the team have become better thanks to his deeper role. The Ross County and Hibs wins are the modern benchmark for Morelos - if more slightly refined to the new management team's style.
By simplifying his role, altering the support structure and providing a freshness - Van Bronckhorst may just be able to bring back the very best of his No.20 on a consistent basis.
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