Rangers' On-Ball Value: Killer new stat reveals 'gigantic' impact amid Morelos' woes

xG is now a commonplace feature on Match of the Day, while Sky Sports’ Monday Night Football regularly relies on varying data visuals. Increasingly, there is a general acceptance that a greater understanding of what unfolds on the pitch can be translated through statistics.

Subscribers to The Rangers Review will be familiar with the emphasis placed on data in our work, from our industry-leading provider StatsBomb who have recently released a new metric titled On-Ball Value (OBV).

According to the company, OBV: “Objectively and quantitatively measures the value of each event on the pitch.”

This allows the data to: “Value players based on their contribution to the team outside of whether the possession had a shot at the end of it.” Assigning value to every action – identifying those that are more influential in the creation or prevention of chances.

A dribble that carries the ball from the touchline to the edge of the six-yard box will be credited more highly than one that is less penetrative but still deemed as ‘completed’ (in that possession was progressed).

Whereas before, if both dribbles did not lead to shots their value would be difficult to measure. That's why OBV is so exciting.

Each event’s impact is tracked based on the team’s chance of scoring or conceding, the pitch location is considered, as is the pressure a player was under. Pass recipients are not credited directly, but will indirectly benefit based on the outcome.

StatsBomb says: “We can now assign a value to passes rather than just counting them. We’ve long had expected goals to rate the quality of shots; we now have OBV to rate the quality of all the other actions on the pitch in between both boxes. After all, shots make up less than 1% of actions on the football field. It’s now time to get a clearer picture of the game.”

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For example, Ryan Kent’s carry and cross late in the game against Lyon would not be measured in his xA (expected assist) tally because no one got on the end of it. OBV can measure actions such as this, however.

With that being said – how does the current Rangers squad stack up? All metrics, unless stated, feature players who have played over 600 minutes per/90 in the Scottish Premiership.

On-Ball Value

OBV, measuring all actions that take place on the pitch, judges James Tavernier as the side’s most valuable player. Under Steven Gerrard, he was at times the key attacking player, while also playing a big part in build-up.

Early indications appear to show that Giovanni van Bronckhorst will temper his freedom slightly. However, unlike his opposite full-back Borna Barisic, Tavernier continues to be the side’s width from his flank. His contribution is hugely significant and explains why the conversation should be focused on fitting him and Nathan Patterson into the same team instead of fazing out the captain.

It’s important to remember that of the 16 league games these numbers are recorded from, 13 were played under Gerrard. In which the creative emphasis on full-backs was greater. Borna Barisic also ranks highly as a result.

Ryan Kent records the third-highest total with Joe Aribo close behind. Ianis Hagi’s slightly lower rating does surprise but has increased 0.11 from his total last season.

Alfredo Morelos clocks a -0.23 OBV. It's worth remembering that in his deep-lying role he often receives the ball with a defender tight to his heels, and will attempt risky passes. 

Shot On-Ball Value

Unsurprisingly, Kemar Roofe comfortably tops the Shot OBV table.

As Adam Thornton wrote for The Rangers Review earlier this year, his output is highly consistent. 

Extending the game-time filter out to 300 minutes comes with the caveat that greater space and tired legs arguably makes certain contributions easier. Fashion Sakala is probably void of that, however, given recent starts. He tops the list at 0.19.

Morelos again comes in with a negative record. As covered before the managerial change, the forward's xG/shot dropped this season and he is underperforming his xG.

In 2019/20, his Shot OBV stood at 0.13 - showing there is room to improve.

Carry and dribble On-Ball Value

This statistic perfectly explains why Kent is playing wider under the new manager. His best attribute is carrying the ball and beating players. Playing in less congested areas will likely only increase his value which is the highest in the division.

Joe Aribo is second, just ahead of Ianis Hagi. Although not the quickest, the Romanian's two-footedness and game intelligence allow him to impact the game in this way.

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Morelos last season clocked a 0.12 for Carry and Dribble OBV. Suggesting this is an area he has underperformed in this campaign.

Pass On-Ball Value

More kudos for Tavernier. Again the stamp of Gerrard is evident in this category. With either full-back arguably fulfilling the most important roles in the tactical set-up.

Steven Davis' total has risen 0.06 from last season. Outlining that when he has played his impact on the ball has been similarly impressive.

Defensive On-Ball Value

Unsurprisingly, Connor Goldson is the team's stand-out defensive presence. The vice-captain is by far and away the most valuable defensive player when it comes to preventing goals.

Thereafter, John Lundstram's position is notable. His three man-of-the-match performances as the No.6 earlier this season likely contributed to his tally.

As with any form of analysis, the past can inform the future. While Goldson has recorded a 0.06 Defensive OBV this year, Steven Davis racked up the same total in the title-winning campaign of 20/21. 

That protection in front of the defence was evidently vital and the lack of Davis over-performing explains the defence's vulnerability earlier this season.

Conclusion 

Over the course of the season, OBV will continue to impact our coverage of Rangers. As we bring you unrivalled insight into what happens on the pitch.

Will Tavernier's influence be as high under Van Bronckhorst? Who replaces a Goldson sized-hole next summer if he leaves?

It is fair comment to say for example that Morelos' passing and dribble/carry output are deemed to reduce the likelihood of the team scoring in the possessions. However, with only three games gone under the new manager, it will be interesting to review these statistics in due course.

Plus as shown throughout, he has recorded higher OBV numbers in the past. These findings perhaps show that the first few months of his campaign were far off standards required.