THE World Cup, Euros, AFCON, and Copa America are often maligned as the worst time to try and find value in the market and the best time for the individual to get a payday.
After as little as three decent performances on admittedly the world's biggest stages, asking prices double, treble, quadruple and more. The Champions League offers this in abundance to those who take advantage, and the side you expect to be the proverbial winners in this regard in 2021/22 is Transnistra's Sheriff Tiraspol.
Many publications have discussed the story and its quirks at length; it's a rabbit-hole well-worth diving headfirst into. Despite shocking everyone in the process of finishing third, and in turn, facing a Europa League tie against Braga, the lack of long-term deals handed out has meant that a few players have already left, and resulted in millions of lost revenue slipping through their fingers.
This January, the two most significant departures have been Sheriff's Colombian-duo of Frank Castaneda and Danilo Arboleda, the latter already finding a new home and riches in the gulf whilst the former remains a free agent. As such, Castaneda has been linked with a whole host of teams scattered across the globe, with the likes of Empoli, Samsunspor, Sochi, Augsburg and Club America supposedly weighing up or in contact with the Colombian. Rangers come into the story as the SundayPost reported that Newcastle are ramping up their interest in Morelos, with Castaneda supposedly seen as a replacement in Glasgow.
For those who want the short answer, he isn't suited to the lone striker role, which he would assume if Morelos were to leave, wouldn't satisfy Rangers' need on the right, and isn't good enough to be anything better than a backup to Kent on the left.
A brutally honest position, so let's elaborate.
Position and Fit
Castaneda is what we call in Basketball a "combo-guard", someone who mixes the skills of both a point guard and shooting guard but doesn't reliably fit within either position; in this instance, a fusion between a striker and a winger. Castaneda is a winger and would struggle to operate as the striker in Giovanni van Bronckhorst's system despite playing the majority of his career minutes there, as seen in the graphic below. At Sheriff, where he has enjoyed the most personal and collective success, he has spent upwards of 66% of his time off on the left-wing. Kent's ambidexterity means that he could easily move on to the right-wing and vacate the left for Castaneda. Still, the Colombian is not good enough to warrant moving Rangers' most dynamic threat out of his favoured side.
Analysing Castaneda's heatmap gives more insight as to where he has been playing whilst at Sheriff, as "positions" are relatively arbitrary; think about the difference between James Tavernier and Jon Flanagan whilst they were both vowing for the right-back spot.
Castaneda's heatmap is a fusion of Kent and Morelos' as he gives the fluctuation and width of Kent but maintains hotspots centrally and in the penalty area like Morelos. In fairness, Hagi's presence is justified as he is Rangers' go-to option on the right despite it not being his favoured position.
Saying all this, Castaneda would likely be limited to operating on either wing at Rangers as he has been at Sheriff. If pushed, he would need a strike partner to play centrally, something that doesn't appear likely under van Bronckhorst.
The Case For and Against Castaneda
Castaneda made a variety of lists at the end of 2020 for the number of goals and assists he managed during the calendar year, with only those in the very top tier of football’s stars able to compete with the Colombian’s video-game-like haul. Though 2021 was not as fruitful he still managed 19 goal contributions in under 1900 mins, which is incredible stuff really. The graphic below bears fruit to the statistical anomaly that Castaneda has been over the past 12 months (just imagine what this would look like for the past 24 months!). Though the comparative material advantage he and his teammates enjoy within a league that is similar in quality to the Scottish Championship, which will be discussed during the case against, the numbers remain impressive.
Micro-analysing each metric is a bit pointless given the level of competition. Instead, let's look at what the attacker does well, using the data where necessary and appropriate to enhance the evaluation, not to base upon. It should be no surprise that you need to be a decent finisher to put up such incredible numbers. During his two years at Sheriff, Castaneda maintained a goal conversion rate of over 20 percent, similar to Kemar Roofe since his arrival, albeit on a larger sample size.
Below is Castaneda's last 75 shots, with the legend marketing the relevant differences in colour and shape. Naturally, being right-footed and playing on the left, the vast majority of his shots come from the left side, where he often cuts in and takes aim. There is a concerningly large cluster of misses from deep on the left-side, though many of these come in the form of free kicks, which he is responsible for at Sherrif.
The other large cluster is close to the goal on the right side which is a favourite area for Castaneda to shoot from whilst one-v-one or on the counter, aiming for either post, as seen in the image below. Here he also does well to contend with the physical presence of the opposition centre-half who does his best to throw him off but fails.
Castaneda is a wiley operator and can often forge and take advantage of openings. However, whether this is down to his intelligence and physical qualities or lack thereof in his opponents is an interesting debate, a bit of both are probably accurate. Below we can see an example of Castaneda finding space through depth and running onto a carefully threaded ball from his teammate. He then progresses to the penalty box, settling for one of his comfort zones, just to the right of the penalty spot, before slotting it past the keeper into the opposite corner. Castaneda and his teammate's good movement and delivery forge this opening; it's an excellent example of his finishing. Still, much of this is down to poor defensive positioning, though exploiting this is easier said than done.
Below is another example of Castaneda finding space despite an abundance of defenders and manufacturing a one-v-one. Though it’s similar to the sequence above, the difference in the example below is that the ball is played aerially, and Castaneda has far less space to manoeuvre within.
Regardless his first touch allows him to take the ball in his stride and progress towards the goal before scoring, made easy by some terrible goalkeeper positioning. Castaneda’s xG/Shot of 0.171 and xG conversion of 1.17 whilst in Moldova corroborate the idea that he has finished well whilst playing for Sheriff, however, the state of Moldovan goalkeeping likely plays a large part in these impressive numbers. Attributing substantial value to the mistakes of others would be harsh on Castaneda.
The forward can also play the role of creator in this situation, albeit with far less consistency in part due to his mediocre passing range and in part due to his tendency to over dribble, exposing a bit of a selfish streak. He is more than capable of slipping teammates on the counter, as seen in the clip below, or playing simple passes around the box, but don’t expect him to be consistently threading the needle on the ground.
Despite his aforementioned limited passing range, Castaneda is fantastic at delivering an aerial ball for others to attack, whether from a dead ball or in open play and is primarily the reason he managed over 0.37xA per 90 and 0.47 assists per 90 in the past calendar year. The examples below are just two of his well-timed deliveries, reminiscent of a golfer’s pitching wedge leading to tangible goal-scoring opportunities for his teammates. Something the likes of Cedric Itten, Morelos, and Roofe would thrive on.
Castaneda isn’t rapid like Kent and as such wouldn't satisfy the demands of many fans to get someone lighting quick in to match the Englishmen. Regardless, he does put in a decent shift out of possession, which was more evident in the Champions League than domestically hassling ball carriers and chasing down loose balls.
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Despite moving well off the ball, Castaneda is not a great dribbler. In Moldova, he can get by given his relative physical and technical advantages, but he struggled to beat his man in European competition. This is one of the most crucial aspects of a winger in van Bronckhorst's system. The ability to beat your man and stretch the pitch high and wide is essential to attacking rotations and something that the fans demand.
The most significant concern relevant to signing the left-sided attacker is the level of competition Castaneda has played at. It's challenging to come to a balanced view of what he is given that he didn't perform well in the Champions League, which isn't critical, and his insane performances in Moldova. The Moldovan Premiership is probably more akin to the Championship than the Premiership in Scotland. Though mainly humorous, we didn't see any clamour for Rangers to sign Stephen Dobbie whilst he was ripping it up at Palmerston.
Castaneda as a Morelos replacement makes absolutely no sense, as he doesn't provide continuity in terms of style or quality. Castaneda coming in as Rangers' first-choice right-winger would also baffle me, given that there is much better available, some even on a free, need I mention Brian Ocampo.
The only rational approach would be Castaneda offering depth on the left as a Brandon Barker replacement, but even then, the Ibrox side would preferentially sign someone younger and with re-sell potential. Hopefully, this story can be added to the growing list of tedious January rumours.
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