Rangers had 'one of those days' but game-changer Fashion Sakala's introduction came too late

Yesterday’s draw at Tannadice was one such exception. 29 shots, 62 touches in the opposition penalty box, an expected goal tally that should have resulted in Benji Siegrist picking the ball out of his net on three occasions.

Asked post-match if there was an area in which his team could have performed better, Giovanni van Bronckhorst conceded chance conversion as the only negative from an otherwise dominant second-half display.

However, is there an argument to suggest that despite the numbers clearly showing Rangers should have travelled south with all three points, earlier substitutions could have tipped the balance?

Prior to Fashion Sakala replacing Scott Arfield on 58 minutes, the visitors xG tally stood at 1.07. Based on their expected goals, the probability that a shot should result in a goal, they deserved to be level at that point in the tie. As seen below in the game’s xG trendline, Sakala’s introduction, combined with later substitutions and a retreating opposition who were holding on for large periods, led to one-way traffic.

In recent matches, the inclusion of Arfield in the front three has allowed van Bronckhorst’s side to build play on the right flank and funnel possession vertically to find Ryan Kent in space. Given Liam Smith was tasked with man-marking Kent yesterday, this ploy was less successful than in recent fixtures.

There was more space after the interval to attack United down the right and on two occasions Arfield was found in positions that, had Sakala been introduced earlier, could well have resulted in an earlier equaliser.

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A minute after the restart the hosts have pushed forward and Allan McGregor’s lofted kick is flicked on by Alfredo Morelos.

Arfield has space to attack the side of United’s defence with left-wing back Ilmari Niskanen up the pitch. Given Arfield doesn’t possess the pace or one-v-one skillset of Sakala, Ross Graham can make up space to force the Canadian wide and the eventual shot is way off target.

Minutes later this same space is open to attack again as Morelos reverses a lofted ball into the path of Arfield, who is a few yards of pace away from making the most of this opportunity.

A final example comes just before the substitution. With John Lundstram having won possession in his own half, the visitors have the chance to attack United three-v-three. Unfortunately, the best transitional threat on the pitch, Kent, is deep having tracked back.

The same space down the left side of United’s defence is slightly exposed. Ideally, Arfield would make the run highlighted in red, instead he follows the white line into a central position.

Even though the angle isn’t great, when Lundstram releases the ball there is the opportunity to run beyond Graham however as stipulated, this is not Arfield’s game and he is once more forced wide.

To intervene, Arfield has been excellent recently for Rangers and running at players is not an attribute he’s forged a career from. This wasn’t necessarily a case of ‘bad moments’, just opportunities he does not possess the skillset to capitalise upon.

Arguably, if Sakala was on the pitch at this time the Zambian could’ve taken advantage of opportunities in transition.

Alternatively, his half-time introduction may well have forced Niskanen deeper, as was the case following his substitution just before the hour mark.

Despite his unpolished end product and the fact that he was playing in congested spaces, Sakala played a big part in the momentum falling further in the visitor's favour. He had the highest On-Ball Value (OBV), 1.54, of the match. OBV measures the value of every action that takes place on the pitch to value players based on their overall contribution to the team.

For example, unlike xG a shot does not need to take place following a cross to value the action’s contribution.

A look at the first (top) and second-half (bottom) pass maps below outlines the area from where Sakala could impact the game. His arrival allowed his side to attack with a front five instead of a front four and added one more runner beyond the ball.

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Arfield wants to come towards the ball and drift centrally, Sakala (and Amad after he was substituted on) both hugged the touchline and offered pace to pin back the defence.

On two occasions, Sakala created opportunities for Morelos that somehow failed to find the net.

The equalising goal was a rare occasion in which space was available on the left to create goal-scoring chances.

The dual-threat Rangers posed on the right after bringing on Amad and pushing Sakala centrally increased the attention Tam Courts’ men paid to the opposite flank, as seen by their pressure map from when Sakala arrived onto the pitch.

Given the decent first-half showing, van Bronckhorst's decision to not make any changes until the hour mark is understandable and his side deserved to win the tie, without consideration given to clear penalty denials. 

Nonetheless, from 45-58 minutes the only shot on goal Rangers had was Arfield's above-highlighted wayward effort. 

Perhaps an earlier rolling of the dice was required.