The three chapters to Allan McGregor's Rangers season and why change may be required

Up until Boxing Day, Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s mid-season arrival appeared to catalyse the consistency that proved evasive in the early stages of this campaign.

Key players improved, as did domestic form, and the defensive numbers trended upwards. Allan McGregor rebounded again following a stop-start season, keeping his side ahead with top performances against Hearts and Sparta Prague most notably.

Along with the team’s record of 13 points from a possible 24 since football returned, McGregor’s form has been the most pressing concern in 2022, a theme only exacerbated by Sunday’s 2-2 draw with Motherwell.

For supporters, it’s a topic that’s often approached reluctantly. McGregor, one of the club’s greatest ever No.1s, enjoyed arguably his best ever season in 2020/21. At 40, his professionalism is undebatable and no one would question the winning mentality so clearly demonstrated throughout a decorated career.

However, mistakes in a recent draw with Ross County and against Motherwell on Sunday have proved costly and opponents appear to be targeting the six-yard box at corners, given McGregor doesn’t often claim high balls.

The Rangers Review has previously highlighted deputy Jon McLaughlin’s superior ability with the ball at his feet. Arguably, the No.2 also commands his penalty box, and combats crosses, with greater aggression and assurance.

These attributes have never been a huge area of strength in McGregor’s game, who forged his reputation as an above-average shot-stopper. Producing regular big moments during both his spells at Ibrox, often when only called upon intermittently in games.

READ MORE: It's time to talk about Allan McGregor for the sake of Rangers' title hopes - Garry Carmody

The underlying numbers suggest that while still performing above average across the season in terms of shot-stopping, McGregor’s performance has dipped significantly from 2020/21. All the data used is from the Scottish Premiership only, unless stated otherwise.

Firstly, the stopper’s Goalkeeper On-Ball Value (OBV) has nosedived. Explained in greater detail here, OBV is a new, advanced statistic that measures the value of every event on the pitch.

StatsBomb CEO Ted Knutson says: “Goalkeepers are arguably the most important players in preventing their team from conceding goals, and OBV measures the impact that their goalkeeping actions (saves, claims, etc) and sweeping actions have on stopping the opposition from scoring, whilst also measuring whether their passing range and distribution is adding value to their team’s likelihood of scoring or not.”

It gives a full picture of a player’s impact. Last season, McGregor had the highest Goalkeeper OBV in the division at 4.88 – this season that number has fallen to -0.54.

A focus only on shot-stopping makes for better reading. To determine this, we can use Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA). StastBomb define it as the following: “How many goals did the keeper save/concede versus expectation (post-shot xG faced)? This is representative of how many goals the goalkeeper's saves prevented within a season.”

Last season McGregor’s GSAA for the entire season stood at 5.22, bettered only in the league by Benji Siegrist at 6.40.

This season overall, his GSAA has fallen to 2.31, the fifth-highest in the league.

His save percentage his dipped by 16% and his expected-save percentage has dropped by 12%.

Closer examination of his form, split over three periods throughout the season, offers further context.

Divided into matches managed by Steven Gerrard (July 31 - November 7), the early tenure of van Bronckhrost (November 28 – December 26) and the period after the winter break (January 18 – February 27), McGregor's stats alternate significantly. 

Under Gerrard during a six-game period (July 31 - November 7), his GSAA number stood at -0.98. The most notable mistake during this time came from a corner against Hearts in the final seconds as Craig Halkett equalised. Other flashpoints include Bevis Mugabi’s goal in a 6-1 win over Motherwell and, of course, the tumultuous league cup exit (not included in this data).

After arriving, van Bronckhorst was quick to reaffirm that McGregor was his No.1 and the keeper’s most consistent run of form followed. Recording a GSAA of 2.88 during a seven-game period (November 28 – December 26) as a run of clean sheets were achieved.

The superb showing against Hearts in a 2-0 win accounts for 1.64 of the 2.88 total.

READ MORE: A familiar tale of Rangers domination offset by poor finishing and defensive errors

Since the new year, McGregor has made a few costly errors and during an eight-game period (January 18 - February 27) his GSAA stands at 0.42.

It’s a clear drop largely owing to the match against Ross County (-0.95) and Sunday’s draw with Motherwell (-0.78). The reality of McGregor’s mistakes are demonstrated in negative GSAA returns during both encounters.

While Motherwell’s first goal on Sunday could have been gathered by McGregor as a cross flashed across the six-yard box, it was their second that gives greater cause for concern.

Kaiyne Woolery's effort recorded a post-shot xG of 0.23. Based on StatsBomb’s advanced metrics, a keeper saves that 77 times out of 100.

Has McGregor played too much football?

Gerrard constantly spoke about managing the player’s load before departing late last year, giving McLaughlin regular league appearances. Van Bronckhorst highlighted the role of the team in both goals conceded at the weekend and while that rings true, to win this league his side will need above-average moments from their No.1 – who at this moment in time is out of form.

There have been three parts to McGregor's season and, based on all valuable evidence, there may well be a fourth which features another impressive response and return to form. At this point in the season, there is no time for sentimentality, however, and a spell out of the team may be required.