AS Rangers enter the very final stages of the league season, three points behind Celtic, the need for a perfect run in remains clear.
The prospect of that remains in the balance. Can a side that has lacked real consistency all season be relied upon to win nine games in a row? After all, to win a league title you can only rely on yourself.
As the Rangers Review revealed yesterday, in comparison with the 2020/21 title-winning campaign key underlying numbers haven’t nosedived. Per game, a higher quality of chances have been created and the quality of opportunities conceded has increased by just a single decimal point. The key difference for Giovanni van Bronckhorst, and before him, Steven Gerrard, has been in both boxes.
No longer overperforming in front of goal as they did last season, or in defence as Allan McGregor’s recent form demonstrates, the campaign has proved largely frustrating.
Furthermore, Old Firm rivals Celtic have led the way on underlying numbers for the season's majority, in the form of the xG difference table. Based on the probability of chances created and conceded ending up in goals, Ange Postecoglou's side has come out on top.
While it's only the real points that matter, an xG difference table can reveal whether a team is under or overperforming, which informs expectations of what is to come.
Over the course of the season, Celtic’s per 90 xG difference of 1.78 overshadows Rangers’ 1.18.
A look at both teams’ xG trendline, which uses a ten-game rolling average, gives further insight.
The current league leaders have hit relatively similar numbers all season, the only real dip suffered was ended prematurely by the winter break.
Rangers have trended upwards following a ropey start to the season, enjoyed their best and most consistent spell after van Bronckhorst arrived and dipped drastically during the first four games of 2022.
Since the Old Firm defeat, the sixth point from the right, fortunes have flipped again. Dropped points against Motherwell and Dundee United may have overshadowed the reality that performances have been on the up.
Of course other factors must be considered. Stats don’t measure the complacency and individual mistakes which have proved so detrimental recently, while based on the evidence of a midweek tie with St Johnstone, fatigue will prove problematic if squad rotation does not increase at Ibrox
However, closer analysis of the season in stages does suggest that last season’s league winners are hitting form at just the right time.
Under Gerrard's spell management this season, (July 31 – November 7) Celtic topped the xG difference table with 1.78 per 90 to Rangers’ 1.06.
From van Bronckhorst’s first league game until the winter break which started on boxing day (November 28 – December 26) it was closer. Postecoglou’s side saw their chance creation numbers shoot up and record a 2.14 average compared to the Ibrox side’s 1.32.
Rangers floundered in the four games immediately after the winter break (January 17 - February 2) which culminated in the 3-0 Old Firm defeat. Celtic led the xG Difference table 1.25 to 0.48 over this period.
Since that match at Parkhead however, van Bronckhorst’s side have nosed ahead with a 1.87 average compared to their rivals’ 1.73.
It’s not a huge advantage and most importantly of all, key opportunities have been missed throughout the last month to claw back the points deficit. Nonetheless, this gives cause for optimism.
This season's performance has been inconsistent and at times lethargic, if the numbers continue to favour Rangers however it could yet have a happy ending.
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