How Rangers can accommodate Kemar Roofe's 'penalty box proficiency' in misfiring 4-3-3

During his tenure, the squad evolved from their overdependence on Alfredo Morelos through a combination of signings, player development and system alteration. However, three months into Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s Ibrox spell an overreliance on certain individuals to find the back of the net appears to be resurfacing.

As the Rangers Review explained last week, chance creation numbers have improved compared to last season’s invincible campaign but goals per game have dropped. At the other end, a defence no longer performing above-average is providing a less reliable platform as seen below in the season-upon-season comparison.

Goal contributions have declined with Kemar Roofe appearing out of favour and Ianis Hagi injured. Last season they had 34 goals and assists between them, this campaign they have nine. Ryan Kent has dropped from 18 to five, Joe Aribo’s haul has increased by only one, Scott Arfield has four.

Only the eight contributions of Fashion Sakala have added any significance from the market.

Non-penalty goals and assists 2021/22.

Non-penalty goals and assists 202021.

A combination of this squad entering the end of its cycle and a new manager attempting to imprint his philosophy has led to something of a regression in front of goal. 

Van Bronckhorst has used numerous systems and styles so far, all varying from the traditional 4-3-3 he appears to favour. The right-sided attacking role has been subject to alteration most commonly. Hagi, Arfield, Scott Wright, Sakala and Amad Diallo have all featured over the past three months.

Up until the defeat at Celtic Park, the management team fielded two touchline-hugging wingers. As explained at the time, this was a far cry from the role Roofe played so successfully under Gerrard, based around isolated one-v-one duels and stretching the pitch.

Subsequently, van Bronckhorst has moved to an asymmetrical 4-3-3 with Arfield playing beside Morelos and Kent in the front three. This set-up has looked at its best when propped up by a Ryan Jack-John Lundstram axis and allows the Ibrox side to build play through the pitch on the right, create overloads and retain width on the left for Kent to attack isolated full-backs.

This positional structure is demonstrated clearly in the recent 2-0 win over Hibs.

Arfield can receive with his back to goal, rotate intelligently into the centre of the pitch and combine with surrounding players.

Here against Dundee United, his rotation inside is untracked and offers Rangers a route forward.

James Tavernier can attack the space Arfield has vacated.

Later in the game, this same pattern repeats itself. Arfield is not receiving the ball at the touchline, rather coming infield to create an overload.

With build-up play a definite problem area since Gerrard departed given van Bronckhort's more direct style, including Arfield in the front three offers a consistent passing option through the pitch.

Take the 5-0 win over Hearts as an example. His pass map below features plenty of lay-offs and vertical passes in central areas.

However, the Canadian has just four league goals from an xG tally of 5.48, a slight underperformance based on the quality of chances presented. Recently, the volume of games played has been apparent in his performance, with off-ball work a vital component of his game.

While perhaps not regarded as the answer to Rangers’ right-sided issue, the tactical changes to accommodate Arfield provides a blueprint for the reintroduction of the front three Gerrard eventually settled on to provide the necessary firepower; Kent, Morelos and Roofe.

The diagnosis in recent weeks has been clear, this team needs more goalscorers. Roofe’s cameo appearance from the bench and poacher finish to win Saturday’s tie against Aberdeen is evidence of the role he could play in the league’s remaining eight games.

The attacker was brought to Ibrox in spite of his injury record because he offered the perfect blend of goals and work outside the box, both with and without the ball. He can play with his back to goal, prove a reliable out-ball in possession and contributes when possession turns over.

When his team need to build play and push back the opposition, the forward possesses the skillset to drop into midfield like Arfield and offer passing options through the pitch.

Crucially, in the box he comes alive. Whether by peeling off the shoulder of defenders as on Saturday, finding the room for a header or reacting quickest to second balls.

In a 4-0 win against Ross County last season, Morelos dragged the left centre-back out of position and Roofe exploited the space.

The forward's second goal in a 4-1 Old Firm win demonstrated his comfort operating in build-up play before arriving to score.

Last season he outperformed his xG. Roofe is a concise finisher capable of scoring chances others in the squad are not. His xG/shot per 90 has been the highest in the squad during both seasons north of the border.

As demonstrated by his radar from the games played this season, of which only 2.8 90 minutes have come as a central striker, Roofe can play as a second No.9 when the ball is around the penalty box.

Since arriving at the club, van Bronckhorst has tinkered his tactical set-up regularly. It appears the lack of a reliable right-winger and build-up options granted by the shape seen against Hibs, Hearts and Dundee United, which all featured a Jack-Lundstram midfield and Arfield in the front three, is the settled option. 

This coincidently offers a clear position for a player that, statistically speaking, has been sorely missed all campaign. Roofe can retain the build-up contribution of Arfield while adding his penalty-box prowess, addressing the need for a second finisher in the front line.

His inclusion in these final eight games could provide Rangers with the goal threat they've lacked all season and prove instrumental in their title bid.