AS Ryan Kent limped off at Dens Park on Sunday afternoon, few would dispute the notion that he’d enjoyed a very good game.
The 24-year-old skipped beyond challenges, broke defensive lines and worked tirelessly out of possession. As has been the case so often in his Rangers career, this performance wasn’t matched with a goal or an assist, a trend that has attracted some supporter frustration.
In the Scottish Premiership last season Kent recorded 10 goals and eight assists; this season, while having missed a chunk of games to injury, his current total of two goals and five assists underwhelms.
Given that Alfredo Morelos has never hit more than 17 league goals in a season, this team needs goals from all over the part and as examined recently, a lack of goal contributions from first-team members this season has proved detrimental.
On that note, is Kent's underperformance on raw numbers deserving of criticism, or is there more to this discussion than meets the eye?
How has his role changed?
Steven Gerrard moved Kent inside the pitch during his first season, the former manager favoured playing with two narrow No.10s to create central overloads and get attackers closer to goal.
Giovanni van Bronckhorst has settled in the last month on an asymmetrical 4-2-3-1 system, having initially played with two high and wide wingers. On the right, a midfielder drifts inside to open up space James Tavernier can attack, on the left Kent hugs the touchline.
Comparison of the Englishman’s touch map in the Premiership under Gerrard and van Bronckhorst this season offers a clear distinction between his current and previous roles.
Furthermore, a look at the successful open play passes received by Kent in the same time period demonstrates how differently either manager has attempted to utilise his strengths.
The reasons that provoked Gerrard to move his wingers infield have been well documented and the topic is discussed in greater detail here. Similarly, the Rangers Review has previously discussed the thinking behind Kent's reinstatement as a classic winger. It was evident from the first game of van Bronckhorst's tenure, a 2-0 win over Sparta Prague, that the Dutchman intended to isolate Kent against his full-backs and maximise one-v-one duels.
It was a refreshing tactic after weeks of Kent being crowded out centrally and restricted of opportunities to use his best asset, one-v-one duels. On too many occasions before the change in the dugout this season, he would drop deep in frustration to get on the ball and play in front of the opposition.
Additionally, it stopped opponents from giving up control of the wide areas; previously, opponents could trade-off wide control for central compactness, as they were comfortable granting Borna Barisic room in transition. Natural width in high areas stretches the opposition defence.
By building play on the right in the asymmetrical system before switching play to the less congested left side, Rangers can create space for Kent to attack. Take a look at the passes played by Morelos into his teammate since van Bronckhorst’s arrival; dropping deep and switching play through pressure.
See in the below example against Motherwell how open the left side is compared to the right as Morelos plays wide, due to Rangers attracting pressure and then playing through it.
What about the numbers?
Underlying numbers are important but at this stage of the season more than any, players need to deliver tangible results.
Comparison between Kent’s per 90 output this season compared to last below provides further context. This season he has played 20.5 90 minutes in the league compared to 34.7 in 2021/22.
His goals and expected goals (xG) have decreased, as has his Shot On-Ball Value. Meanwhile, creative numbers have stayed consistent and his On-Ball value (OBV) as well as his Dribble and Carry OBV, have increased.
OBV, explained in greater detail here, is a metric that measures the value of all actions on the pitch and, unlike xG assisted which requires a shot to record creativity, is not dependent on a shot to judge the value of an action.
An example the Rangers Review has used on a few occasions is this dribble and cross made by Kent against Lyon. Given no one connects in the box, it does not boost Kent’s underlying creative numbers, xG assisted. However, OBV measures all these actions.
Looking at this season in closer detail, we can see an upturn in Kent’s performance since the managerial change.
Goals and shots aside, he has been more creative and recorded stronger OBV numbers. The attacker has also won two decisive penalties against Hibs, which don't show on his record.
Elaborating on the issue of goals, Kent’s shot map from this season compared to last tells a story. Highlighted by Rangers Review contributor Stewart Brown, all his goals derived from central locations last season.
Looking at his shot map this season, it’s clear Kent has little success when cutting in on his right foot and trying to bend a shot into the far corner, he’s also seen 24 shots blocked this campaign which suggests either poor aim or poor decisions, a narrative his negative Shot OBV backs up.
Contrastingly, his xG assisted return per 90 of 0.31 since van Bronckhorst arrived compared to a season average of 0.21 last season demonstrates an improvement in chance creation numbers.
A net-positive outcome?
It probably won’t be until the summer that we get a proper answer as to whether Kent is at his best being used out wide by van Bronckhrost.
The stats show he is unlikely to score bucketloads from this position. However, he is laying on more opportunities for his teammates while revealing OBV statistics all point in the right direction.
It’s important to match the numbers with the eye test and in this writer’s opinion, Kent is most effective in space, just take recent European performances as an example. If that was more forthcoming domestically, an infield role would perhaps be his best position but as Rangers face constant blockades, the only opportunity to isolate him regularly is out wide.
The next two months will require big contributions from big players and while Kent does need to find the back of the net with greater regularity, his OBV numbers and improving creative statistics outline his contribution when running down the wing.
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