Braga scout report: A weakness at crosses Rangers can exploit, gifting penalties and controlled aggression

As the Rangers manager added when speaking to Sky, every team at this stage of European competition poses a real challenge. Meanwhile, the reaction in Portugal suggests Braga also harbour realistic expectations of advancing into the semi-finals.

Such mutual expectation is to be expected. In the UEFA club coefficient, the clubs are nearly inseparable, Rangers are 38th and Braga 39th. The side's 2019 meeting featured some clear disparities in the first 45 minutes of a 3-2 win at Ibrox which were relinquished in the remaining game and a half. And, having competed admirably against premium Portuguese opposition in Porto and more recently Benfica, Rangers will approach the game knowing they’re more than capable of matching up on the basis of quality.

Sitting fourth in their domestic league, Braga defeated Sheriff and Monaco to reach the last eight. Coincidently, they were in the same group as Red Star Belgrade who Rangers defeated 4-2 in the last 16. Their draw and defeat against the Serbian opposition offers further evidence that the Ibrox side can reach the final four.

Carlos Carvalhal has predominantly played with a 3-4-2-1 or a 3-4-3 in Europe. The main areas of variation appear to be the height of either wing-back and shape of the front three, which can fluctuate depending on the game.

Playing against a back three should allow Ryan Kent to remain high and provide a counterattacking threat alongside Alfredo Morelos. Utilising a 3-5-2 in the away leg could well facilitate this attacking threat and match up Braga’s three central attackers.

Comparison of the side’s attacking output suggests Braga are more possession-dominant. However, it should be noted when comparing stats that they’re yet to face one of the competition’s top outfits having played Ludogorets, Midtjylland, Red Star, Sheriff and Monaco to reach this stage. Meanwhile, van Bronckhorst’s team have faced four games against Lyon and Borussia Dortmund, which is reflected in the statistics.

Per 90, Braga record a higher xG (expected goals) which suggests better quality of opportunity and that's also reflected in volume, with the Portuguese side having averaged nearly seven more shots than their quarter-final opponents. In fact, their 3.3 clear shots per game has a 92 percentile ranking, they’re one of the competition’s best chance creators.

When comparing defensive numbers it’s again important to note the impact of playing twice against Lyon and Dortmund in a relatively small sample size. Braga again come out on top across a range of metrics.

An interesting detail is the opposition passing percentage numbers they record. This metric tells how intensely a side presses and therefore forces the opposition into errors. At 76 per cent, only the already eliminated Dortmund boast a better total in the competition at 75 per cent. Does this mean that, as against the Germans, there will be space and opportunities to exploit in transition?

A moderate PPDA total of 8.58, Passes Per Defensive Action which measures the number of passes an opponent attempts divided by the defending side's defensive actions, suggests their pressure is calculated. Rather than focus their game around transitions like Dortmund they'll look to exert intense pressure in specific moments. 

Looking at the 15 goals they've scored to this point reveals a tendency to attack down the left, only three strikes have derived from right of the penalty spot.

Of the goals they’ve conceded, Carvalhal’s men appear to have something of a weak spot when crosses are floated towards the six-yard box, notice the three circles which represent headers. Of the seven open pay goals conceded in Europe so far, five have derived from crosses into the box. Only three teams have a higher box cross percentage than Rangers in the competition, their tendency to hit crosses could prove profitable over the two legs.

Additionally, the Primeira Liga side have conceded five penalties in 10 games. Given Ryan Kent’s propensity to be brought down inside the box, a feature exaggerated in Europe due to the extra space afforded, don’t be surprised to see James Tavernier presented with another chance from 12 yards.

In terms of key personnel the offensive trio of Ricardo Horta, Iura Medeiros and Abel Ruiz pose a significant threat as reflected in the goals and xG chart from the campaign so far. Luckily for Rangers, Gelano departed for Porto in January.

Matheus has the club’s highest On-Ball Value at 0.58 per 90, the keeper who saved from the spot against Ianis Hagi in 2019 remains a key player.

He’s saved nearly three goals above average in the competition to this point (GSAA), the second-highest total in the competition.

As reasoned, the higher level of opposition Rangers have faced to this point makes data comparisons over a small sample size difficult. What can be attained is the stylistic details shown throughout.

Braga don’t press relentlessly but force their opponents into mistakes when they commit to regaining the ball. They have a high dependence on their goalkeeper as reflected in his superb On-Ball Value statistics and GSAA and appear vulnerable when defending crosses. 

While not without its challenges, this tie offers Rangers a more than realistic chance of making the last four in Europe. On the evidence presented so far, this group of players should have no trouble rising to the occasion.