ANYONE who requires proof that set-pieces can influence the outcome of Old Firm matches needs only cast their mind back to the previous two seasons.
Fil Helander’s winner in August, Callum McGregor’s own goal last January, Alfredo Morelos’ leveller at Parkhead, Connor Goldson’s opener at the same venue in 2020/21’s first Old Firm encounter. Crucial points dictated by rehearsed routines, coming straight off the training pitch.
Corners and free-kicks provide the opportunity for small gains, particularly when opponents appear to be relatively evenly matched.
Based on the three points that separate Rangers and Celtic at the top of the Scottish Premiership, Sunday’s encounter at Ibrox will likely be a tight, evenly-matched affair.
Admittedly, the pair’s previous meeting would give some cause to argue Celtic’s case as the better team. Undoubtedly, Rangers’ task on Sunday is to dispel the February result as an outlier and reassert the dominance they enjoyed in this fixture over the previous two years.
And, as well as targeting their opponent’s vulnerabilities in open play, Giovanni van Bronckhorst should look to overload and overpower the visitors at set-pieces, just as others have done throughout the season when facing Ange Postecoglou's side.
Celtic have the best defensive record in the Scottish Premiership, having conceded just 18 goals in 31 games, 10 of which have originated from set-pieces.
Five of those goals have come from corners, four from indirect free-kicks and one from a throw-in.
Before breaking down weaknesses in greater detail, a general look at the shots they’ve conceded from set-pieces demonstrates a real cluster of activity around the six-yard line, particularly towards the right side of the goal.
Narrowing the search down to corners from the left and right, the main area of contact is within the width of the penalty spot and far side of the six-yard box.
Indeed, analysis of their defensive corners touches map confirms suspicions. Look at the occasions in which Celtic have lost first contact; there’s hardly any activity inside the six-yard box or at the front post, teams don’t appear to be trying to get on top of Joe Hart or win a flick-on, but rather create space and generate opportunities from the centre, close to goal.
Celtic appear to have three main weaknesses when defending set-piece situations, broadly defined as; Hart not commanding in claimable areas, a marking scheme that is exploitable and the targeting of individuals.
Firstly, Hart has averaged fewer claims than Allan McGregor this season. CCAA (Claimable Collection Attempts over Average) is a metric that measures how likely a goalkeeper is to claim a ‘claimable’ pass, compared to the average attempted rate.
Hart is below the league average of 2.3 with a ranking of 1.8. McGregor at 2.8 is slightly ahead.
READ MORE: Ange Postecoglou's Celtic Plan B and why it can give Rangers the advantage
Matt Macey, Hibs’ six-foot-seven No.1, has the league’s highest CCCA at 4.5. Compare his claims map, crosses or floated balls he has attempted to catch, to Hart’s.
The ex-Man City keeper has scarcely come for corners and not ventured out to claim any from the left side of the pitch.
It’s surely no coincidence therefore that two goals conceded from this side have been finished inside the box. Jack Baldwin's goal for Ross County and Danny Mullen's for Dundee were finished from an area most would expect their No.1 to command.
Lewis Ferguson has scored two headers against the league leaders this season. The Aberdeen midfielder's equaliser at Pittodrie earlier this year is of particular interest. With Greg Taylor guarding the front post, the Scotland international could isolate and overpower his smaller international teammate at the front post.
Cameron-Carter Vickers and Carl Starfelt have also been outfought on occasion. Ryan Sweeney’s equaliser for Dundee at Dens Park came after getting in between the pair earlier to head beyond Hart.
And Ryan Porteous, wrongly tagged as Martin Boyle in the below image, also won the individual battle with Carter-Vickers to pull a goal back for Hibs at Easter Road during the festive fixture list.
Finally, Christian Ramirez’s goal at Pittodrie earlier in the year, and Mullen’s aforementioned goal at Celtic Park, were examples of the league leaders switching off and being out-done by dismarking schemes.
Ramirez is at the back post and it looks as if the American is waiting to attack the ball from this zone.
Celtic have marked up two for two, but as Ramirez sprints to the front post, Reo Hatate doesn’t follow him. Whether that’s intentional or a case of Hatate not being switched on is up for debate.
Mullen’s strike was a similar story. He is near the front post, marked by Matt O’Rilley.
With nobody at the back post, Mullen spins around into space to score as Sean Byrne blocks O'Reilly.
To recap, Celtic have a tendency to concede headers from central areas, partly down to disorganised marking and likely also owing to a team that doesn’t boast all too many towering aerial forces.
In addition, it’s likely that teams aren’t floating crosses on top of Hart, as others have gradually done so against Rangers, because of his larger frame. But, the Englishman’s CCCA demonstrates an unwillingness to command his penalty box when crosses are directed towards the six-yard line.
There is also proof of individuals switching off, resulting in Postecoglou's side falling victim to rehearsed routines.
When an opponent has conceded 55 percent of their goals from a phase of play, it shows a clear area to target. On Sunday, if Rangers get their set-piece routines right, they could dictate who comes out on top.
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