Can Kemar Roofe's mirroring attributes replace Alfredo Morelos during Rangers injury absence?

“I think it will be a long-term injury,” he said when questioned on Alfredo Morelos’ fitness.

There’s no way of dressing up the significance of the 25-year-old’s absence. It’s an immense loss given the month of April will feature a European quarter-final, domestic semi-final and two Old Firm league meetings. Morelos has only been rested twice by van Bronckhorst since the Dutchman arrived in November despite a hectic schedule, that in isolation outlines the gravitas of a potentially serious injury.

Kemar Roofe is the obvious replacement option. His perennial injury problems, combined with van Bronckhorst’s move away from the 4-3-3 Steven Gerrard utilised which was tailored to accommodate the 29-year-old, has reduced game time significantly. Recent game-defining goal contributions against Aberdeen and Dundee have demonstrated the worth of Roofe’s individual qualities; unquestionably the best finisher at the club, his impressive goal return has prompted calls for a more substantiated role in the starting 11.

Given how integral Morelos has been within van Bronckhorst’s system, and Roofe’s lack of minutes until late, can Rangers simply swap one in for the other?

The centre-forward role

Morelos has been integral to van Bronckhorst’s Rangers, scarcely missing a match. The fact that Roofe has only started as a No.9 in a dead rubber match against Lyon, a Scottish Cup tie against Annan and in the previous Old Firm when Morelos was unavailable suggests the manager does not believe the Jamaican can mirror Morelos’ impact directly.

But what does Morelos do so well? His deep-lying link-up play has been adapted rather than scrapped, offering an option through the pitch instead of acting as a lynchpin from which to switch attacks. He plays with his back to goal, rolls defenders and links intelligently.

As well as this, the Colombian has recaptured the physicality so integral to his individual performance and is taking more touches inside the opposition box. He has been used more broadly as a focal point since the change in regime, catalysing a fine run of form.

He also boasts the highest xGBuildup of any forward in the Scottish Premiership at 0.91 per90, a metric that attributes the xG value of the final shot to all players involved in the entire possession, thus demonstrating a player’s role in the building of play. Roofe’s total of 0.66 is respectable, however, 20.89 average carries compared to Morelos’ 30.63 is evidence of the type of individualism he cannot replicate outside of the penalty box.

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Both players' touch maps feature similarities, which gives evidence to the claim that they shouldn't play in the same team. Notice involvement around the centre circle, a tendency to drop to the right and contribute outside the penalty box.

Data comparison

Roofe has played 10.3 full 90 minutes in the Scottish Premiership and only 2.9 of those have come as the central striker. It’s important to remember when comparing the duo that Roofe’s minutes have regularly been attached with greater defensive responsibility.

Nonetheless, analysis of the pair's StatsBomb radar demonstrates stylistic similarities and differences.

Morelos has averaged more shots, a higher xG and more touches in the opposition box per90.

Two key numbers that fall in Roofe’s favour are his xG/shot and PADj pressures. The former suggests that although taking fewer shots, his efforts are of a higher quality and his far superior possession-adjusted pressures indicate an increased value off the ball.

Additionally, Roofe’s On-Ball Value and Shot On-Ball Value far outweighs Morelos. On-Ball Value is a metric that measures every action on the pitch to gather a holistic view of output, explained in greater detail here.

It should be noted that Roofe has started just seven league games this season, often coming onto the pitch to face tired legs or defences that have already withstood an hour of sustained pressure, which could give his numbers a natural boost.

Roofe’s unique contributions

Roofe has credit in the bank regarding his activity inside the penalty box. As demonstrated by his xG/Shot above, he is undeniably the team’s most clinical finisher. Nobody finds space in the penalty area quite as successfully as he does.

To show this consistently, we have to go back to last season which offers a greater sample size. Roofe netted 14 goals from an xG of 10.18, an overperformance. Notice the location of those strikes.

He only scored once from outside the area, on the final day of the season against Aberdeen, while 11 strikes came within 12 yards of goal.

Last season, Morelos found the net 12 times from an xG of 12.85, an underperformance. The location of his goals was more sporadic and only five came within 12 yards.

How will it work?

It seems unlikely that Roofe will be tasked with leading the line exactly as Morelos has done so in recent months. While it's true that the former may assume similar positions on the pitch and boast comparable attributes, van Bronckhorst’s reluctance to start him as the team’s No.9 to this point suggests his skillset differs from Morelos.

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Therefore, the manager must tailor his attack slightly to offer Roofe support options when in possession, given he is less comfortable carrying and progressing the ball than Morelos. Additionally, Rangers can't rely on the forward to isolate defenders and win physical battles with the same regularity as Morelos.

Nonetheless, the evidence of intelligent movement inside the penalty area and impressive finishing statistics give cause for optimism. He is a quality player and has made significant contributions during his time at Ibrox.

Positionally, Roofe replacing Morelos is a straight swap but stylistically it is not. The attack must be tailored to accommodate a more potent finisher while surviving without the physical individualism and ball progression of Morelos.