RB Leipzig forensically analysed: What can Rangers expect to face in Europa League showdown?

Rangers supporters will be bustling with excitement at the prospect of qualifying for a first European final since 2008 but Giovanni van Bronckhorst's men face their toughest test yet when they travel to Leipzig on Thursday.

RB Leipzig, or Die Rotten Bullen (The Red Bulls), may have only been founded in 2009, however, the sports-drink startup will care little for Rangers' 137-year advantage as recent results and a flawless Europa League record put them in the favourite position for the mid-week matchup.

And while it didn’t necessarily look the case when Leipzig slumped into the winter break just five points clear of the drop zone, Die Rotten Bullen are now on the precipice of making history both domestically and in Europe - in touching distance of the first major title in club history.

Fluid Verticality

One of Domenico Tedesco’s first decisions after taking over in December was to steer away from the 4-2-3-1 favoured throughout Jesse Marsch’s forgettable 157-day tenure as head coach.

Though balanced on paper, the system simply didn’t suit a squad peppered with attacking personnel, but few traditional wide midfielders or defence-oriented fullbacks.

Thus, Tedesco reverted to the 3-4-1-2 first implemented during Julian Nagelsmann’s two years in charge - a move which has undeniably paid off.

Without rigid defensive responsibilities, RB Leipzig’s primary fullbacks - Angeliño and Benjamin Henrichs - have been flying up the pitch to support Die Bullen in attacking phases.

In fact, since joining RB Leipzig neither Henrichs nor Angeliño have ever put up more impressive attacking numbers than what they are currently producing under the former Spartak Moscow and Schalke 04 manager as we can see below.

This impressive production from RB Leipzig’s fullbacks is a key area which Rangers will need to address ahead of the home leg on Thursday. The solid structure retained by the back three allows the likes of Benjamin Henrichs and Angeliño to push extremely high in possession and potentially cause immense trouble if the home team's wingers don’t track back defensively.

Additionally, the 3-4-1-2 also lends itself to fluid positional interchange, and quick vertical transitions - two aspects which any side within the Red Bull football group absolutely thrives off.

Tedesco’s side have an impressive awareness of when to step on the gas and when to slow the game down, effortlessly swinging between possession-football and transitional play. This should force Rangers to stay alert at all times to reduce any lethargic defensive movements which Leipzig can capitalise on.

Whereas Borussia Dortmund twice held more than 65% of the possession against Rangers without ever putting up more shots on target, the same good fortune should not be expected against a better equipped, and more balanced, Leipzig side.

A Tempered Pressing Approach

Even bigger than the change in formation, Tedesco’s approach out of possession has transformed Leipzig's season from spiralling out of control to now being in contention for major European honours.

We already alluded to it in our section analysing Leipzig’s approach with the ball, but the additional security the 3-4-1-2 provides hasn’t just allowed a player like Angeliño to get into dangerous pockets of space further up the pitch - it’s also reduced the amount of defensive 1-vs-1 situations he is forced into.

With five assists in European competition, Angeliño has the most goal contributions of any defender in the Champions League or Europa League this season, however, his 53% tackle success and 36% pressure success leave a lot to be desired against the ball.

Thus, moving him further up-field where his strengths are promoted and his weaknesses are neutralised has been a fantastic by-product of one of Tedesco’s earliest tactical tweaks.

Whilst Angeliño is outperforming 90-99% of the fullbacks in Europe’s top five leagues for assists, expected assists, and shot-creating actions per 90, his underwhelming defensive displays are still a major issue. Thus, the move to a 3-4-1-2 has helped negate some of these key weaknesses in his game out of possession.

It isn’t just the additional centre-back which has worked wonders on Leipzig’s defensive record though, with the refined approach to how they look to press the opposition enabling Tedesco’s side to become one of the best defences in Europe this year.

With just 10 goals flying past Péter Gulácsi in the past 12 league matches, Die Rotten Bullen have the best defensive record in the Bundesliga since Tedesco took charge of the side.

Whereas Jesse Marsch attempted to translate his gung-ho pressing style from the weaker Austrian topflight, Tedesco has implemented a more tempered approach which suits the better opposition Leipzig faces.

Cues like a lateral pass, an opponent facing his own goal, or an arrant touch will “trigger” the entire Leipzig XI to push up the pitch and win back possession with feverish intensity.

Whilst it may not create as many turnovers as Marsch’s full-throttle approach, it allows Leipzig to maintain their pace over a full 90 minutes without lapses in concentration, or physical decline.

Now that we are in late April and the German outfit are one of just four sides still competing in three competitions, lessening the load on a game-to-game basis has proven crucial in order to sustain the squad’s title credentials right up until the very end.

The Key Player

Countless players within this RB Leipzig side are capable of hurting a Rangers backline with just one clean sheet in their past seven Europa League fixtures, but it’s impossible to look past Frenchman Christopher Nkunku as the key difference-maker in the final third.

The 24-year old is undoubtedly having the best season of his career, directly contributing to 49 goals in 44 matches in all competitions. Since the turn of the year no player in Europe has put up more goals and assists than the French international (19 in the Bundesliga, and 26 in all competitions), a testament to his otherworldly talents in just his third full season in Germany.

READ MORE: Abdoulaye Sissako scouted: The Rangers transfer linked man-orientated machine with huge potential

With such an impressive output (30 goals and 19 assists), it’s hard to imagine how Leipzig would fare without the 24-year old freely drifting across midfield.

Of Die Roten Bullen’s 65 Bundesliga goals, Christopher Nkunku has had a direct hand in 49% of them, a ludicrous record only bettered by Real Madrid’s Ballon d’Or bound Karim Benzema. With such an enormous effect on Leipzig's goal-scoring output, the rare occasions in which Nkunku is unfit or fails to get on the scoresheet can see the fortunes of the entire side take a significant nose-dive.

Whereas Leipzig averages roughly 2.71 points per game in the Bundesliga when Nkunku contributes a goal or assist, that same average slams to the floor when the Frenchman fails to deliver, dropping all the way down to 0.92.

While Alfredo Morelos’ thigh injury could leave a lasting blow on Rangers hopes of winning European silverware, a similar spell on the sidelines for Nkunku would be absolutely fatal for RB’s chances.

Keys to Success For Rangers

Having been unbeaten in their past 15 matches before this weekend’s defeat to Union Berlin, Leipzig are currently one of the most in-form sides in Europe's top five leagues, sparking legitimate fear that the German outfit will bring a crashing end to the European fairytale in Glasgow this season.

There are, however, a couple of key areas where Rangers can look to exploit Tedesco’s side.

The first concerns RB Leipzig’s left side of defence - an extremely attacking pairing with Nkunku drifting into the half-spaces and Angeliño taking up positions ordinarily reserved for an expansive winger.

Notice the high volume of events Angeliño completes in the opposition’s half compared to the relatively even output from Rangers’ own left-back, Borna Barisic.

Whilst going forward it can leave opponents completely overwhelmed, in moments of transition it is an area to exploit as the East-German outfit offers ample room to counter into.

Scott Arfield has frequented the right side of attack more often than not since Ianis Hagi’s injury, but van Bronckhorst may want to push Joe Aribo further up-field, take a gamble on Scott Wright’s dynamism, or possibly even swap Ryan Kent to the right flank. All three would offer a bit more speed in transition moments that could exploit the space often deserted by Leipzig’s Spanish wingback.

At centre-back, there is also a significant worry for RB Leipzig as Domenico Tedesco will be without Hungarian international Willi Orban for the first leg. He was awarded his second yellow card of the competition in their latest fixture vs Atalanta.

Only goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi has featured more frequently than Orban in the past two seasons, but more than anything, the 29-year old's experience and leadership will be sorely missed in the crucial away leg.

With the youngest roster of any side which featured in the knockout stages, suffering the loss of an important figure like Orban can leave a lasting blow on Leipzig’s defensive structure and resilience in tough moments.

Though Joško Gvardiol (20) has expertly slotted into the Leipzig setup since arriving in the summer, the Croatian youngster is still in his very first season at the club, and lacks the necessary leadership - or grasp of the German language - to usher a backline in a similar manner to Orban.

The Prediction

Rangers have won just one of their eight European matches (qualifiers included) away from home this season, whilst Leipzig have drawn both their home fixtures in the knockout stages, so it feels like something’s got to give when the two sides meet later this week.

The Scottish outfit will do everything they can to keep the tie as tight as possible on Thursday, hoping to return to Glasgow, and the cauldron-like atmosphere of Ibrox Stadium, with a favourable result in hand.

On the basis of individual talent, current form, and depth of squad though, all the signs are pointing to East Germany. It’s hard to imagine RB not imprinting their style onto the Scottish champions and forcing them into a reactive affair.

With that said, I predict a cagey affair in Germany likely decided by a moment of brilliance from Christopher Nkunku, before the return leg in Glasgow goes down to the wire with one single goal evading Rangers from taking the tie to extra time.

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