GIOVANNI van Bronckhorst said “he couldn’t have asked for much more” from his Rangers team after yesterday’s 1-1 draw with Celtic.
And, fresh from a European tie in Germany with the return of RB Leipzig just days away, his opinion is backed up by the numbers.
Playing away from home, Rangers created the better chances and in the end, the width of the post was all that stopped Fashion Sakala from netting a winner.
They also boasted a higher On-Ball Value (OBV) at 1.31 to 0.71. OBV, explained here, “objectively and quantitatively measure the value of each event on the pitch”.
This is achieved by assessing whether the likelihood of a team scoring increases after a specific action. For example, the below frame didn't end in a shot, but the actions leading up to a penalty box entry increased the likelihood of a goal.
The trendline shows that Rangers created a better quality of chance as the game wore on. Celtic visibly tired around the hour mark and from that point, only one team looked like winning.
Both pass maps expose similarities in the two tactical set-ups, with full-backs providing width in possession and wingers more resemblant of inside forwards, attempting to exploit the half-space channels.
However, a key difference which worked in Rangers’ favour at Parkhead was the structure of their midfield. They wanted to control and overload the right side, while John Lundstram and Scott Arfield played closer to the No.6 (Steven Davis) than Matt O’Reilly and Reo Hatate did (Callum McGregor). As a result, the hosts’ midfield was open at points. Also, notice the large circle surrounding Carl Starfelt, he was handed possession as Joe Aribo marked Cameron Carter-Vickers.
Ange Postecoglou’s side were restricted in front of goal, with only one shot ending up on target. Daizen Maede’s header on the six-yard-line, 0.37xG, was their best chance of a second.
Contrastingly, five of Rangers’ shots found the target and the location of their efforts offers reason for encouragement. Van Bronckhrost’s side managed to create a decent number of opportunities inside the penalty box, even without a recognised striker.
Sakala’s late attempt which rebounded off the post late on was recorded at 0.32xG.
The league leaders made 170 pressures to their opponent’s 173, with possession evenly split the match was well contested from box-to-box.
In many ways, two moments in the first half did a good job of summarising this season.
When Ryan Kent connected with a cross having ghosted in on his marker’s blindside, he missed the target from a 0.24xG chance.
However, when Jota earned a similar opportunity up the other end, the winger capitalised, despite his opportunity being recorded at a lower quality of 0.17xG.
Rangers’ failure to capitalise and deliver in key moments throughout this season has now caught up with them. While Celtic’s underlying numbers have been consistently strong, their rival's inconsistent tempo and regular individual mistakes have put the league title out of reach.
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