Rangers transfer scouting: The flying Norwegian ball carrying winger who could replace Ryan Kent

The emergence of a report linking Bolton’s Dapo Afolayan with Rangers for a fee of around £1.5m took me by surprise as left-wing is not necessarily a place of immense need, at least in comparison to some of the far greater chasms in the squad.

My first reaction to the link was not to focus on the player himself. Instead, it suggested the club may be in the market for an left winger, likely, a rotation option as Ryan Kent’s future is still up in the air.

With the greatest of respect to Afolayan, he looks a tad underwhelming as a direct replacement for his compatriot. This had me thinking, as I usually do when the rumour mill is rife with suggestions of Rangers business, what would I do, and in this case, who would I choose as a rotation option on the left? 

A synergy of quality, youthfulness and frugality is the aim when recruiting rotation options. Ideally, the project should have an eye for the individual, eventually being good enough to merit the starting spot once their game develops and confidence is gained. Within this framework, few players realistically satisfied the three criteria as much as Molde’s Ola Brynhildsen.

Before delving into any analysis, it is essential to note that Brynhildsen recently suffered an injury that should see him return in about two months, or just about the same time the Rangers players reconvene for pre-season.

Profile

Brynhildsen is physically anonymous, blending into the crowd as neither his height nor size are anything but ordinary. Despite this, his flatline speed is impressive, though not quite Kent-esque. His strength is reasonably average for a winger, a low threshold. However, he can hold his own against fullbacks in duels, both on and off the ball. Still, he is unable to compete with centre-backs for the most part, especially when he isn't able to leverage his pace.

In terms of an overall evaluation of his physical tools, he shows off a similar strength and build to Ianis Hagi, coupled with Scott Wright's acceleration and running speed. His heatmap below is reminiscent of a modern inside forward. He's licensed to drift in and maintain a position in and around the penalty area when possession is entrenched in the final third. He predominantly plays on the left, but I imagine he could be an adequate stop-gap should injuries and suspensions force him to play on the right.

Brynhildsen’s data profile paints a chaotic picture. He profiles as a winger who consistently gets into goal scoring opportunities but fails to capitalise more often than not, can cross very well but seldom chooses to do so, and manages to manufacture a healthy number of assists despite not being expected to do so. His activity out of possession is average, though a stylistic deflation is inevitable in a possession-heavy Molde-side. Brynhildsen is currently underperforming his xG by 76%, which is slightly worse than Ryan Kent this season and, luckily for him, completely unsustainable.

His career figure for xG underperformance of 26%, a large number. When you watch Brynhildsen, this is sometimes incredibly evident but often hard to wrap your head around when you see the finishes he is capable of. No doubt his age plays a part in this issue. Overall, his data profile from the past 12 months is a net positive but doesn’t shine that bright amongst his peers. Nevertheless, let me explain why I think he would be a high up-side rotation option for Rangers.

Frustrating but Occasionally Brilliant

As detailed, Brynhildsen lacks a “real” cutting edge in front of goal and is in the midst of a painful period of underperformance. Despite this, he takes on opportunities, operating with that ideal 'short-memory' that wingers and strikers alike need.

Below is his shot-map from the past calendar year. Despite these woes, he’s shooting in optimal areas, with the vast majority inside the box. He has an evident penchant for the top left of the box, no surprise for a right-footed left-winger. Interestingly, there is also a healthy cluster of goals in and around the six-yard box, suggesting his intelligent movement and timing often see him as the option to finish off moves and tap-in crosses - opportunities he would be afforded aplenty at Rangers.

The root of Brynhildsen’s problems are in his shot placement. It’s very easy to suggest he just put the ball in the corners. However, the number of shots peppered in and around the centre of the goal at a relatively easy height for the goalkeeper is disappointing. It's no surprise the vast majority of shots are struck with his right foot - with his left and head taking supporting roles.

These limp efforts are even more frustrating when you consider what Brynhildsen is capable of when he strikes the ball well, as his technique is fantastic. Below we have an example from his Staebek days; here, he picks up the ball from a deflection, takes a touch and dispatches it in the top-left corner.

A similarly impressive strike is seen below. Here Brynhildsen cuts in and, through a supporting run from his LB, is given enough space to shoot. He sends it to the bottom right corner.

A final example of his goalscoring exploits is seen below. Here, we see him acting as a striker, finishing with poise from a lay-off. Once his teammate secures possession, he darts into the box and is played in. Brynhildsen then puts it past the keeper into the bottom-right corner.

Within Brynhildsen’s current skill-set, goalscoring is neither a strength nor a glaring weakness. Instead, he needs to refine this ability. This is something he should be able to do as he has age and outstanding technique on his side.

He is not a primary goalscoring winger and shouldn’t be treated as one, though the other parts of his game allow him to be weak in this respect and maintain a net positive impact.

Creative and Diverse Passing Range

Brynhidlsen primarily maintains an important role and influence in the final third. However, he can drop back and facilitate in earlier build-up stages when asked to do so. His long-distance passing range is impressive as he can pick out teammates across the pitch regularly, often acting as the catalyst for a counter-attack, as seen below.

As conventional wisdom and the data suggests, Brynhildsen plays an essential and quality role in the final third. Below we can see his shot assists and assists from the past calendar year, with almost all coming in and around the box, seldom from out-wide.

The vast majority of the passes seen above don't travel far and originate from positions close to the goal, often a challenge for many given the sheer number of bodies in and around them. Despite this, Brynhildsen is effective at finding the open man even if he is in a sub-optimal position. Below we can see two different examples of this. First, we see him engage one of the defenders forcing him to hedge high, leaving space open in-behind. Despite this, the centre-back has done well to cut off the angle for the most part, though Brynhildsen finds a way to slip it past him.

The second and more common instance is below and comes from a UECL qualification bout against Trabzonspor. Here, Brynhildsen picks up the ball wide, manages to slip inside the LB, and hits the byline. From there, he plays the ball into open space just outside of the 6-yard box, where a teammate meets it and has an open goal to aim at.

A final example of the ingenuity that Brynhildsen provides when in central areas is found below. Here he is the target of a throw-in. The ball successfully reaches him, and upon a bounce, he hits it first time into a runner's path. The ball is timed well enough that the teammate doesn't need to break stride and is in with a 1v1 chance.

When it comes to the more traditional winger responsibility of crossing the ball, Brynhildsen is a weird one. He has the skill and the success rate to back it up, yet only musters just under 1.3 per game, well below league average. He has a propensity for low or bouncing crosses, as seen below. However, he still maintains quality when sending in a lofted delivery.

A successful example of each can be seen below. First, we have Brynhildsen finding his striker with a driven delivery which manages to bypass the ball-side defender, arriving in the striker’s path to take it first time.

The second example is below. We see Brynhildsen receive the ball from his expansive full-back just inside the box. Given his position, the opposition defence is transfixed as he could quickly shoot. However, acknowledging this and all the ensuing ball-watching, he plays it back post for his teammate to run on to.

Brynhildsen has a more expansive and consistent passing range than any of the wingers currently at the club. Despite the odds being against him, his ability to find teammates could prove critical when breaking down low blocks, much like his ability to cross.

Dynamic Runner

Brynhildsen has that electric quality which we see on a game-by-game basis in the likes of Kent and Scott Wright. Though not as dynamic as either of those two, his sense of direction and skill on the ball certainly trumps Wright, though not Kent. Brynhildsen’s running power offers a fantastic progressive outlet, as seen in the graphic below. The massive cluster of black lines that originate just before the halfway line and protrude into the final third is impressive and an indication he knows and is capable of taking on multiple players.

Progression isn't the sole purpose; rather, his movement is often a pre-cursor to shots and goals as he consistently pulls players out of position, opening up passing and shooting lanes. This can be seen by the vast array of black circles and blue diamonds in the graphic below. The most apparent cluster is found at the top-left of the box, matching his shot map from earlier, a trademark of right-footed left-wingers.

Two examples of his effectiveness at taking on players in the final third can be seen below. First, we see Brynhildsen receive the ball on the left flank, with the right-back tight to him. Brunhildsen identifies the isolation, beats the defender with his pace and feint movement, and then forces the wide centre back to pick him up, resulting in a 3v3 in the penalty box, ideal for Molde.

Even if that same level of space isn't afforded, Brynhildsen remains a sly customer and can wriggle his way past opposition defenders. Here we see him with his back to the penalty box in a crowded left corner. What he does next is reminiscent of a rip-sin in basketball, where he hedges one way before with all his force turning the other way and jetting off. He manages to do this successfully and heads into the box with a full head of steam and two teammates as options.

Off the ball, his movement remains dynamic and exciting. Though he doesn't have the intelligence of a top-level striker, he knows when to accelerate, when to decelerate and when to offer an option. An excellent example of this can be seen below, Here has drifted inside from the left wing and darts diagonally to the right side of the box. This forces the left centre back to track him and leaves the striker 1v1 with a physically inferior left-back. He manages to pick up the ball and play it towards the striker.

Fit and Feasibility

There has been much talk surrounding the theory of recruiting players who are underperforming their xG, and the benefits of doing so. Inherently an underperformance of a standard metric, for the most part, is unsustainable, and a player at some juncture is expected to return to the mean.

The external factor that profoundly accompanies a wave of poor finishing is a drop in transfer value, so investing during a barren spell may be financially prudent. But, as mentioned earlier, that is exactly what Brynhilsden is in the midst of. Coupled with his recent injury, Molde’s value for the winger has deflated, at least for now.

Rangers should take an interest in buying low with an eye to selling high in a few years, as Brynhildsen has a well-rounded game and age on his side. Should he be able to improve his finishing, which a change of scenery, teammates, and coaches may enable, he turns into a first-choice winger for Rangers and likely one who could be sold for a substantial profit. Even if he fails, his game (finishing aside) is good enough that his acquisition would remain extremely low risk.