If you’d offered Antonio Colak and the Rangers support 11 goals out of 14 Premiership starts this summer, there’d have been little argument.
Of course, recent results overshadow any present positives. Rangers are nine points behind heading into the World Cup break with pressure on Giovanni van Bronckhorst as high as it could possibly be.
Two points from nine against St Mirren, St Johnstone and Livingston in the last month has turned everything sour at Ibrox. Belief is low and it's hard to envision the current style bringing success.
It's no coincidence that a dry spell for Colak, speaking in relative terms to his quick start, has coincided with Rangers' disastrous run of form before the World Cup interlude.
Taking into consideration the minutes he’s spent on the park the Croatian forward has averaged 0.9 goals per 90 minutes in the league so far. An excellent return at a rate the club have lacked in recent years.
However, after initially scoring 10 in nine league starts the striker has netted just once in his subsequent five matches, an equaliser against Aberdeen last month.
From the opening day away at Livingston, to the 4-0 win against St Mirren in early October the summer signing scored 10 goals from 4.39xG.
What does that mean? He was scoring at double the rate of expectation based on the quality of chance his teammates provided him with. As shown in his shot map below, efforts were attempted from good locations, with only four of 31 from outside the box and just six blocked by the opposition.
During the 10-game stint, Colak scored 1.35 goals from 0.59 xG and attempted 4.2 shots per 90.
Thereafter, the goals have dried up. From the 2-1 win over Motherwell to a 1-0 win over Hearts, the 29-year-old underperformed expectation, scoring one goal from 2.53xG. 11 of 25 shots were blocked and the general shooting locations chosen less profitable.
During this five-game stint, Colak scored 0.21 goals from 0.53xG and attempted 5.2 shots per 90.
While the quality of opportunity he has been presented with has dropped marginally per 90, 0.59 to 0.53, it's not nearly as big a fall as his goals-per-game ratio.
Is it a case of being isolated? He is averaging one more pass per 90 (15.6 from 14.3) since the home win against St Mirren which saw him notch a 10th league strike. Even if that number is slightly skewed by a different role against Aberdeen in which he tripled his passing activity. And his shots per 90 has actually increased from 4.19 to 5.2
So why the change? Most likely, and most simply, it’s the natural reality of a player overperforming his xG. Colak was scoring at double the rate he was expected to based on the chances he was receiving before his drop-off. Think of this bicycle kick against Ross County which has an xG rating of 0.11…
Or the strike from the edge of the box against Dundee United which was handed the same likelihood of beating the keeper…
Low quality chances that he turned into goals.
Only two of the forward’s 11 strikes have come from inside the six-yard box with the majority, as outlined below, originating from the right-hand side of the penalty spot.
As the Rangers Review wrote earlier this season, one of the few attacking patterns visible in van Bronckhrost’s side's final third play has been the deliveries aimed at Colak. From the right-hand side, in particular, he’s received numerous cutbacks allowing him to finish across his body.
Like this goal against Aberdeen…
Hearts...
And Dundee United...
If you compare the before and after shot maps above, Colak’s not only had fewer efforts from his favoured position in the box. He’s also had more shots blocked than not. What's more, his xG per shot has fallen from 0.14 to 0.10.
Every forward will have a dry spell in front of goal and given the speed with which Colak started, a slight regression in recent weeks shouldn’t come as a surprise. Particularly given the fact that teams will have identified where the Croatian is dangerous and adapted their defensive plan accordingly.
One in five is not a disastrous feat by any means, although after 10 in nine it is a contrast.
What's certain is without the goals of Colak and his overperformance of chances, van Bronckhorst's side have toiled in front of goal, unable to break down St Mirren, St Johnstone or Livingston. His drop-off before the break was undoubtedly a contributing factor to his team's own fall in form.
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