Is Ryan Kent underperforming or misunderstood? - Joshua Barrie

The 26-year-old winger has one goal and five assists after 12.3 Scottish Premiership 90 minutes, in a team that has already fallen nine points behind the top of the table.

At points, Kent has appeared to epitomise this team’s regression right when he ought to be reaching peak age. At others, there’s been more understanding granted, given he is often the sole dynamic force in midfield tasked with unpicking defences and regularly doubled up on.

Both camps likely have justified arguments that we can better understand using data, in-game analysis and crucially, context.

Firstly, let’s compare Kent’s numbers from the season so far to his best campaign in a Rangers shirt, 2020/21.

This also allows us to better understand his performance as a left-sided No.10 (20/21), handed a free role inside the pitch, and as a left-winger (22/23), instructed to stay wide and provide the width.

Red represents this season and blue the title-winning campaign.

What is this radar showing?

•  At a glance, the 20/21 season saw Kent offer a greater goal threat and 22/23 a greater creative threat.
•  His xG has fallen from 0.27 to 0.15. His shot quality, xG/Shot, has also dropped from 0.11 to 0.08.
•  His xG Assisted has risen marginally from 0.2 to 0.25.
•  Most notably, he’s attempting over two more dribbles per 90, along with an extra successful attempt.

The data confirms what the eye sees – playing wider allows Kent more opportunities to take on his man, but fewer goalscoring opportunities.

So far this season, no player in the league who's played more than 600 minutes has more attempted dribbles (6.43) or successful dribbles (3.5) than Kent. Furthermore, only Aberdeen’s Luis Lopes has contributed more ‘value’ from his dribbles and carries than Rangers’ No.14.

On-Ball Value (OBV), explained in greater depth here, is StatsBomb’s all-encompassing metric that measures every action a player makes and not just those which precede a shot.

StatsBomb says: “We can now assign a value to passes rather than just counting them. We’ve long had expected goals to rate the quality of shots; we now have OBV to rate the quality of all the other actions on the pitch in between both boxes. After all, shots make up less than 1% of actions on the football field. It’s now time to get a clearer picture of the game.”

Take the goal against Hearts last Wednesday as an example. It was assisted by Borna Barisic but made possible by Kent beating three opponents and sliding in the left-back. OBV can measure the value of Kent’s part in this goal.

Not only does he rank well on Dribble and Carry OBV, but his overall OBV is also the third-highest in the league (0.51), behind James Tavernier (0.59) and Jota (0.55).

He doesn't sit quite as high on the basis of xG Assisted, which reveals the quality of chance a player has provided directly. Jota’s per 90 output of 0.42 is almost double that of Kent’s, who comes sixth league-wide with 0.25.

To summarise, if Kent continues at the same pace he’d be expected to assist another six goals and score another four before the end of the season. So is he underperforming numerically?

Van Bronckhorst certainly thinks the former Liverpool player needs to offer more in front of goal, speaking last month he said: “He has to bring more. Ryan is an exceptional player with a lot of qualities. The performance he had against Hearts was a really good one with a lot of threat going forward.

“I know his qualities and they haven’t been there every game. He needs to be consistent and give himself the best positions on the pitch to be dangerous and have an assist or score the chances he creates himself.

“The goal he scored against Hearts is a great example when he comes in and makes sure he hits the target. He’s definitely a player who can give us more goals and assists.”

In the four full seasons before 2022/23, Kent has averaged 6.25 goals. That number trended six (18/19), seven (19/20), 10 (20/21) and, after his changed role under van Bronckhorst, two (21/22).

Anyone who has watched the attacker cut infield and try to find the far corner will know success rarely follows. Just look at his shot map from the Premiership season as evidence.

As demonstrated by the key, just five of 25 efforts have found the target and 11 have been blocked. One has ended up in the back of the net.

Last season was the same. 17 of 66 shots found the target and 27 were blocked. Only two ended up in the back of the net.

The winger has a frustrating tendency for trying shots from the wrong angles and locations, and then not pulling the trigger from the right ones.

Take this example against Hearts last week, rather than unleashing a shot after beating two men or playing into the box, he bids to go around another opponent and loses possession.

Or this scenario against Hibs earlier in the season. Kent beats three players and instead of shooting from this angle…

He tries to go around another player and gets tackled…

When he scored 10 league goals in 20/21 they were largely from central locations. Areas of the pitch he now rarely inhabits when playing on the left touchline.

Given the winger has scored only a handful of back-post tap-ins or right-footed curlers when playing wide on the left touchline in the last year, it’s safe to assume his goal tally won't skyrocket when playing under van Bronckhorst. 

So what about the other side of the coin, are his other qualities slightly misunderstood?

We know based on the OBV cited earlier, Kent’s underlying numbers are very high. The Rangers Review compared him to another winger who’s been criticised for their goals and assists recently, Jack Grealish.

“It’s his ability to attract many opponents,” Pep Guardiola said when discussing Grealish's qualities in comparison to other Man City players with stronger goal returns.

“We didn’t sign Grealish for goals & assists. It’s how he contributes without the ball and how he produces for others.”

Kent’s ability to draw in opponents, beat men and create space for others is a skill that sometimes goes under the radar.

In the win over Hearts, as shown above, he used the opponent's doubling up to his advantage. Able to beat three markers but crucially, quickly releasing the ball into the space that pressure had vacated.

Does he suffer from not having consistent attackers around him at the moment who provide the goal-threat others did in the 20/21 season? Especially given his lack of goal threat from out wide?

What's more, the dependency placed upon him to break down defences this season has not helped. Rangers have lacked tempo and dynamism against deep defences, often giving opponents time to outnumber Kent and ensuring that he has to beat markers from a standing start.

The penalty he won against St Mirren is a perfect example. Look at the position he starts from, Kent has to bypass three men in order to win the spot-kick.

So, underperforming, overreliance or misunderstanding?

There’s no denying that like many of his teammates, Kent has not hit the heights he is capable of during points of the season. His decision-making can infuriate Ibrox, whether that be taking on a man too many, or chopping back when he ought to simplify and deliver.

Like his manager said his qualities "haven’t been there every game" and at times his confidence has looked low. The contrast last Wednesday in the first and second half against Hearts provided a perfect example of this reality. 

However, the context of this argument is vital. His underlying numbers depict a contribution that can go under the radar and extends beyond goals and assists, especially when held up against his goalscoring record which fails to impress.

The attacker may have not provided van Bronckhorst with all the solutions so far this season but neither is he the most pressing problem at Ibrox.

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