When the dust settles and Michael Beale mulls over yesterday’s 3-2 Old Firm defeat with a clear head, two emotions will dominate.
He’ll be optimistic that on a day when Rangers made two errors leading to goals and saw one legitimate goal unfairly chalked off, points were still conceivable.
Although this was a match where few quality attacks were pieced together on either side Rangers shaded the xG. Their approach off the ball stifled Celtic and forced them into errors. Ange Postecoglou's side completed only 80 percent of their passes, a seven percent drop from their home average.
The sense of frustration and reality of an unfulfilled sliding doors moment will be just as strong. This was a game there to be won, and the performance did provide a platform for somebody to step up and grab headlines. James Tavernier aside, nobody could turn the attacking dial in Rangers’ favour.
The game’s xG trendline, charting opportunities chronologically, has a glaring comparison between the 45-60 minute mark.
By this point, both teams sat equally at 0.46xG. The difference? Celtic pounced upon their moment of opportunity while Rangers let theirs pass.
Of course, xG does not tell the afternoon’s whole story. It only charts attacks that end with a shot after all.
However, in a game of these fine margins, it’s useful to distinguish the details. And when we look at the fine print, it confirms what the eye sees.
In Kyogo, Celtic have a forward who’s decided the outcome of the past three Old Firms. Scoring an equaliser at Ibrox to deny Beale a January win, netting both strikes in the League Cup Final and also recording a double yesterday.
Look at the chance value both sides recorded yesterday. Kyogo’s goals derived from 0.15 and 0.12xG chances. Alfredo Morelos’ second-half volley and header, 0.16 and 0.17xG, alongside a later Tavernier chance, 0.17xG, were all higher.
Allan McGregor could do little about the hosts’ first strike and although the second’s PSxG value of 0.19 is low, a metric which evaluates the likelihood of a goal once a shot has been taken, he understandably was not expecting a shot when Ben Davies’ should have cleared the ball. Kyogo finished through his legs from close range.
Overall Celtic didn’t create a barrage of chances, especially considering their two second-half goals were made by the opposing defence.
That’s in large part owing to Rangers’ approach off the ball, covered below.
The visitors' chance creation was marginally better overall, with Morelos’ two moments at the start of the second half proving the standouts.
The Colombian’s misses were not glaring but in equal measure, his shots were not decisive.
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Having pulled away at the back post, he hit a volley at Joe Hart's near side instead of going back across the keeper.
The forward then connected well with a subsequent corner which hit Ryan Jack when goalbound.
Beale wanted his side to get closer out of possession and be braver on it. As reflected in their pass network, Ryan Kent predominantly operated off the left while Todd Cantwell tucked in from the right with Malik Tillman given central reign.
Interestingly, Rangers clearly tried to play down their right side far more regularly after the interval.
Lining up in a 4-4-2 shape off the ball, Rangers' approach limited Celtic from regularly getting into their final third rhythm. Their opener was a rare occasion when the away side dropped too deep.
Beale's side had a high line of engagement which allowed them to win the ball in promising areas and stifle attacks.
Here’s a good example of how it worked. Celtic have a three-vs-two at the back but because Tillman’s blocking the route into Callum McGregor, Cameron Carter-Vickers looks to play forward.
Aaron Mooy, closely followed by Nico Raskin, looks to bounce the ball around the corner but Kent’s on hand to intercept.
Rangers failed to make the most of the attack, however.
In many ways, this was the story of the game and a theme repeated throughout.
The Ibrox side were taken down a notch by their execution while Celtic found a way to win with theirs.
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