Set-pieces, as everyone knows by now, are a fundamental aspect of modern football. And the general feeling this season has been that Rangers have performed poorly at dead-ball scenarios.
In one sense that's absolutely true. However, if you look a little deeper, things might not seem as bad as they first appear.
On Saturday in a 3-0 win over Livingston, Philippe Clement’s side scored what was only their fourth goal from a corner in the league this season when Fabio Silva found the net. From corners alone, Rangers managed to fashion 0.82xG on Saturday - almost double their overall set-piece xG average of 0.41 per/90.
Throughout this season, however, the club’s goals/90 from set-pieces (which includes corners, all free-kicks and throw-ins) has dropped from 0.55 in 2022/23 to 0.22 in 2023/24. On the face of things, that's not great. A drop of over half the goals scored from all set-pieces, surely something is going wrong?
Take a look further under the surface and things might not be as bad as that topline number suggests. Based on underlying numbers (xG) the Ibrox side have not suffered a drop-off whatsoever. In fact, their 0.41xG/90 from set-pieces is the same average as last season.
In 2022/23 Rangers scored 21 set-piece goals from an xG of 15.66. Six of those goals were direct free-kick attempts (a key point which really boosts overperformance), four from indirect free-kicks and 11 from corners. Overall the overperformance based on chance creation came in at a little over five goals, but that was largely due to direct free-kicks as will be explained.
So far in 2023/24 Rangers have scored five set-piece goals from an xG of 9.33. One of those goals has been a direct free-kick attempt and four have come from corners. Overall the underperformance based on chance creation has been almost five goals.
Taking away direct free-kicks, Rangers scored 15 set-piece goals from 15.45xG in the league last season (indirect free-kicks, corners and throw-ins). This season they've managed four set-piece goals with the same margins so far from 9.33xG.
While the overperformance last season was based on direct free-kicks Rangers still performed at their expected level based on chances created when taking those goals away. This season that's far from true.
The point? The data shows that Rangers have not been bad when it comes to creating chances from set-pieces - they’ve been bad at taking those chances.
From all set-piece opportunities discluding direct free-kicks Rangers have four goals from 9.33xG - here's the shot map.
Is that to say everything has been good and no change is required? Not necessarily. Rangers average the third-most corners in the league per/90 so a slightly higher chance creation is to be expected.
They've often, on the eye, lacked variation in their routines in-game and from game-to-game. That's why their inswingers against Livingston caught the eye - every corner looked a threat and that's been rare throughout this season.
Equally, if a few clear-cut opportunities had gone their way then this conversation might be slightly different. Let's take a look at some of those examples.
Against Kilmarnock on the opening day of the season, under previous management, Kemar Roofe missed a 0.17xG chance at the back post while Kieran Dowell failed to convert a 0.16xG effort from close range.
Against Aberdeen in a 1-1 draw Leon Balogun was guilty of hitting the goalkeeper with a 0.27xG chance and the crossbar later on with a 0.14xG one.
Finally, Danilo passed up fantastic opportunities after showing good movement from set-pieces against Hearts at Tynecastle (0.44xG) and Dundee at Dens Park (0.49xG).
Celtic’s set-piece xG has seen a rise from 0.36/90 to 0.48/90 this season. They too have underperformed based on goals (six) to xG created (11.62). Interestingly, whether it's due to game state or some other factor they're taking almost three more corners than Rangers per/90 (10.2 to 6.7).
To win the league title Clement’s side will need every marginal gain to fall in their favour - attacking set-pieces are no different.
They’ll want to sit top of that respective table and create more than their direct rivals. While there's clearly scope to improve dead-ball situations the data also shows poor finishing has been a bigger problem than poor chance creation.
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