On one hand, Philippe Clement was right to suggest the margin of Rangers’ 1-0 win against St Johnstone could’ve been larger. But data always requires context and a look under the hood argues there’s more than meets the eye.
“It was a good performance. The only thing we missed was to score a second, third or fourth goal,” Clement suggested during his post-match press conference.
“It was a really good goalkeeper on the other side. It's a little bit annoying from my side because it's a few weeks that I have had to repeat that, but that's part of football, that apparently goalkeepers against us, they play the game of their season… [In] the end, it's also crucial to not concede chances, so we have for the second time in a row only one shot on target from the opponent.”
The game’s trendline shows yesterday’s performance did merit a win. Rangers conceded just 0.14xG, Josh Rae in the home goal performed above average and if another goal was likely to come over the 90 minutes it would’ve been scored by the visitors.
What’s more, Rangers completed 187 passes in the opposition's final third, well up from their average of 85.6 away in the Scottish Premiership before kick-off. There was more control than, say, the 1-0 win away at Dundee United a couple of months ago.
However, this was another week that reaffirmed a notion Clement attempted to dispute last week - at present, Rangers are a better team away from home in Europe than the Scottish Premiership. The data is too convincing to suggest otherwise. The Ibrox outfit managed as many goals during the first-half of their 4-1 win against Nice at the Allianz Riviera as all six away games in the Scottish Premiership this season, and that’s not all.
Quite incredibly Rangers’ xG difference away from home in the Europa League is second-best in the entire competition. Above the likes of Manchester United, Tottenham and Lyon. Following games at Malmo, Olympiacos and Nice their xG difference (the value of chances created minus the value of chances conceded) comes in at 1.24 - a tally only bettered by Lazio on the road.
In the Scottish Premiership, while Clement’s side still sit second-top in the xG difference table away from home, their tally is only 0.2 following games away at Hearts, Aberdeen, Kilmarnock, Dundee United, Celtic and St Johnstone.
Indeed, yesterday the Ibrox side’s highest-value chance was a late Danilo one-v-one that was saved by Rae (0.47xG). That moment would likely have been called back for a foul with the Brazilian appearing to trip centre-back Bozo Mikulic as he ran through on goal. Take away that total from Rangers’ overall chance creation and their xG would’ve come in at 1.24 on the day, a total that would’ve seen the overall xG difference in the league away from home fall into the negatives.
Aside from that late opportunity, the two best moments fashioned by the visitors came from well-worked crossing opportunities. Rangers benefited from the vision and enterprise of Ianis Hagi in the middle of the park to complement the legs and industry of Connor Barron and Nico Raskin. However, the two best chances created were borne out of slick moves on the right ending in cutbacks that should’ve likely found the back of the net. Nedim Bajrami's effort had a 0.32xG value and Danilo's effort 0.27xG.
Clement is right to point out that over the past two domestic weekends, his side have come up against inspired goalkeepers. According to StatsBomb’s data Rae saved 2.63 GSAA (goals above average) - on the day his stops were worth over 2.5 goals to the hosts, even if Danilo’s late chance (0.67 Post-Shot xG) needs to be chalked off that total.
Similarly the week prior Dundee United goalkeeper Jack Walton’s 1.85 GSAA shows that the goalkeeper overperformed to help his team take a point from Ibrox. On the basis of chances fashioned the Ibrox side deserved to win last weekend.
However, this goalkeeping overperformance isn’t a trend stretched across the entire season. Indeed only once has the quality of Rangers’ finishing (Post-Shot xG) superseded the actual value of chances they’ve created (xG) away from home in the league. All that to say, it’s disingenuous to believe that if the number of high-value opportunities fashioned by the Ibrox club doesn’t increase, their worryingly low goals total won’t either.
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It is worth pointing out that Clement’s men have been unfortunate on the road in front of goal. They’re second in the league for xG/90 away from home in the Scottish Premiership (1.27) but second-bottom for goals/90 (0.5). Overall they’ve managed 18 goals from 23.86xG.
In midweek Clement said he disagreed that the football his side plays is better suited to the space in Europe than domestic challenges, saying: “I don't agree with the story that the style of play, what we want to do, suits Europe but doesn't suit domestic football. I think we had also with Ianis Hagi not being available for a long time, injury of Tom Lawrence, injury of Oscar Cortes, injury of Rabbi Matondo, we lost a lot of creativity in that way and we had to find for other solutions.
"Nedim has been playing a lot, on the left side he can play there but he can play also in the midfield and Nedim and Vaclav had to play all the games also with the national team, so those are things that are taken into account, so getting all these players back will raise also our freshness in our offensive part and will raise our creativity also.”
There is context that should be applied. A lack of rotation options on either wing has left Cerny and Bajrami playing too much football and all season, Clement has lacked a natural option on the left-wing. Additionally, his team look a far better unit with the link-up options offered by Danilo and Hamza Igamane. The game in Perth was a quick turnaround from Thursday will little option for rotation in the starting 11.
However, as Christmas approaches Rangers’ three goals on the road in the league tell a story. They’re not creating sufficiently to score regularly, unlike in the Europa League.
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